Why would we conceivably fix alpha in a exponential smoothing model, at (or close to) 1.00, in developing our forecast for the next month? Ft+1=Dt+(1)Ft When a sudden labor strike in our plant has affected production this month but is expected to be resolved with the union in a few days. When our major competitor has suffered a major fire in their manufacturing plant this month, but is expected to come back to full production next month When our major competitor has suffered a major fire in their manufacturing plant this month and is not expected to resume production in the next few months