• write the answers down on the paper

FORECASTING (10 marks)

The largest fresh vegetables market in your town wants to predict the expected number of sales they can expect for each week for their planned service level for the next three months (12 weeks). They have collected the following sales information for the past eleven weeks on which to base their forecast.

Week	Sales ($)
1	2150
2	1985
3	1655
4	1760
5	1870
6	2245
7	1950
8	2200
9	1850
10	1700
11	1950

1. Compute a 4-period Weighted Moving Average forecast for Week 5 through to Week 12. Assign weights of 0.4, 0.3, 0.2, and 0.1 to the months in sequence, starting with the most recent month. [Marks: 2]

2. Compute a Simple Moving Average forecast for Week 5 through to Week 12. [Marks: 2]

3. Compare the two forecasts (used in question 'a.' and question 'b.') using MAPE. Explain which of the two forecasts appears to be more accurate and the reason why. [Marks: 4]

4. Explain why the two forecast methods create such different forecasts. [Marks: 2]