Year Beer

$20002\mathrm{.}957$

$20013\mathrm{.}037$

$20023\mathrm{.}094$

$20033\mathrm{.}044$

$20043\mathrm{.}337$

$20053\mathrm{.}222$

$20063\mathrm{.}027$

$20073\mathrm{.}169$

$20083\mathrm{.}399$

$20093\mathrm{.}162$

$20103\mathrm{.}301$

$20113\mathrm{.}192$

$20122\mathrm{.}728$

Open the beerv$1$ Download beervUMP or beervi.xlsx Download beerv$1.$xlsxExcel file and. It has yearly beer consumption data in millions of liters. Perform $(1)$ naive forecasting; $(2)$ simple average forecasting; $(3)$ moving average forecasting of order $3$; and $(4)$ exponential smoothing forecasting using alpha $=0\mathrm{.}6$ and the forecast value for Year $2001=2\mathrm{.}957.$

Complete the following statements:

The naive forecast for Year $2013$ is $[$Select$]["3\mathrm{.}128","2\mathrm{.}926","3\mathrm{.}074","3\mathrm{.}218","2\mathrm{.}728"].$

The simple average forecast for Year $2013$ is $$Select $]["3\mathrm{.}218","3\mathrm{.}074","3\mathrm{.}128","2\mathrm{.}728","2\mathrm{.}926"].$

The moving average forecast of order $3$ for Year $2013$ is $[$Select$]["3\mathrm{.}218","2\mathrm{.}926","2\mathrm{.}728","3\mathrm{.}128","3\mathrm{.}074"].$

The exponential smoothing forecast using alpha $=0\mathrm{.}6$ for Year $2013$ is $$ Select $]["2\mathrm{.}926","3\mathrm{.}128","3\mathrm{.}074","3\mathrm{.}218","2\mathrm{.}728"].$

The mean absolute error for the simple average forecasting method is $$ Select $]["0\mathrm{.}148","0\mathrm{.}150","0\mathrm{.}142","0\mathrm{.}176"].$

The mean absolute percentage error for the moving average forecasting method is $[$Select$]["4\mathrm{.}823","5\mathrm{.}691","4\mathrm{.}888","4\mathrm{.}526"].$

Using mean absolute error as the forecasting metric, naive forecasting is the best method in this case $($T$/$E$)[$Select$]["$T$","$F$"].$

Using mean absolute percentage error as the forecasting $r$ smoothing forecasting is the best method in this case $($T$/$F

exponential