Question: You are a Human Resources Manager at a large tech consulting firm, has been reading about using analytics to predict the success of new employees.
You are a Human Resources Manager at a large tech consulting firm, has been reading about using analytics to predict the success of new employees. With the fast-changing nature of the tech industry, some employees have had difficulties staying current in their field and have missed the opportunity to be promoted into a management role after 10 years with the company. The HR_Data worksheet of the accompanying data file contains information on current employees who have worked for the firm for at least 10 years. The information is based on the job application that the employees provided when they originally applied for a job at the firm. For each employee, the following variables are listed: ? Promoted (1 if promoted within 10 years, 0 otherwise) ? GPA (college GPA at graduation) ? Sports (number of athletic activities during college) ? Leadership (number of leadership roles in student organizations) The data analyst sends you an Excel data worksheet labeled HR_Data. The Excel worksheet is attached in a link below. Requirements: The presentation will address the following steps. In order for you to predict which employees are likely to be promoted you will use Analytic Solver to do the following: 1. Create a classification tree model for predicting whether the employees will be promoted into a management role after 10 years with the company. a. Select the best-pruned tree for scoring and display the full-grown, best pruned, and minimum error trees. b. How many leaf nodes, are in the best-pruned tree and minimum error tree? c. What are the predictor variable and split value for the root node of the best-pruned tree? 2. Describe the rules produced by the best-pruned tree. 3. Give and explain the following of the best-pruned tree on the test data: a. accuracy rate b. sensitivity c. specificity d. precision 4. Display the a. cumulative lift chart b. the decile-wise lift chart c. and the ROC curve 5. Does the classification model outperform the baseline model? a. Why or why not. b. What is the area under the ROC curve (or AUC value of the model)? 6. Which is the most important predictor variable? 7. Score the new cases in the HR_Score worksheet using the best-pruned tree. a. What is the probability of the first new employee being promoted within 10 years according to your model? b. How many new employees in the data set will likely be promoted within 10 years based on a cutoff probability value of 0.5? Please include the Excel Steps.
| GPA | Sports | Leadership |
| 2.75 | 1 | 2 |
| 2.92 | 0 | 4 |
| 3.01 | 4 | 2 |
| 4 | 5 | 3 |
| 3.91 | 1 | 0 |
| 3.2 | 2 | 1 |
| Promoted | GPA | Sports | Leadership |
| 0 | 3.28 | 0 | 2 |
| 1 | 3.93 | 6 | 3 |
| 0 | 3.17 | 5 | 1 |
| 1 | 3.87 | 1 | 4 |
| 0 | 3.2 | 5 | 0 |
| 1 | 3.34 | 5 | 0 |
| 1 | 3.01 | 3 | 1 |
| 1 | 3.87 | 4 | 2 |
| 1 | 2.52 | 2 | 2 |
| 1 | 3.14 | 4 | 2 |
| 1 | 3.03 | 1 | 3 |
| 1 | 3.85 | 5 | 2 |
| 0 | 3.02 | 2 | 2 |
| 0 | 2.82 | 4 | 3 |
| 1 | 2.69 | 1 | 3 |
| 1 | 2.81 | 5 | 3 |
| 1 | 3.69 | 3 | 4 |
| 1 | 3.64 | 2 | 3 |
| 0 | 2.73 | 1 | 2 |
| 1 | 2.71 | 3 | 2 |
| 0 | 3.99 | 2 | 0 |
| 1 | 2.76 | 4 | 2 |
| 1 | 2.62 | 4 | 1 |
| 0 | 3.26 | 1 | 1 |
| 1 | 3.35 | 1 | 3 |
| 1 | 3.92 | 5 | 2 |
| 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 |
| 1 | 3.62 | 4 | 3 |
| 1 | 3.37 | 2 | 3 |
| 1 | 2.92 | 1 | 2 |
| 0 | 2.82 | 1 | 0 |
| 1 | 3.3 | 0 | 3 |
| 1 | 3.2 | 2 | 3 |
| 0 | 2.7 | 1 | 1 |
| 1 | 2.73 | 6 | 1 |
| 1 | 3.9 | 6 | 3 |
| 1 | 2.7 | 4 | 1 |
| 1 | 3.69 | 1 | 3 |
| 0 | 3.12 | 1 | 1 |
| 1 | 3.35 | 2 | 0 |
| 1 | 3.07 | 3 | 4 |
| 1 | 3.97 | 1 | 3 |
| 1 | 2.67 | 4 | 1 |
| 0 | 3.12 | 2 | 1 |
| 0 | 2.52 | 2 | 0 |
| 1 | 3.62 | 5 | 2 |
| 0 | 3.99 | 2 | 2 |
| 1 | 2.62 | 3 | 0 |
| 1 | 2.64 | 1 | 0 |
| 1 | 3.46 | 6 | 3 |
| 1 | 2.55 | 1 | 3 |
| 1 | 3.7 | 1 | 1 |
| 1 | 2.91 | 6 | 3 |
| 1 | 2.5 | 6 | 0 |
| 1 | 3.21 | 2 | 3 |
| 1 | 3.1 | 2 | 1 |
| 0 | 2.89 | 1 | 2 |
| 0 | 2.91 | 2 | 1 |
| 1 | 3.16 | 4 | 1 |
| 1 | 2.56 | 0 | 4 |
| 1 | 3.58 | 3 | 4 |
| 1 | 3.63 | 5 | 1 |
| 0 | 3.59 | 1 | 1 |
| 1 | 3.19 | 3 | 4 |
| 1 | 2.78 | 3 | 3 |
| 0 | 2.68 | 5 | 0 |
| 1 | 2.9 | 5 | 1 |
| 1 | 3.99 | 1 | 2 |
| 1 | 3.82 | 4 | 2 |
| 0 | 3.49 | 4 | 2 |
| 1 | 3.16 | 3 | 1 |
| 1 | 3.48 | 2 | 4 |
| 1 | 3.1 | 5 | 3 |
| 0 | 2.69 | 3 | 2 |
| 1 | 2.85 | 5 | 1 |
| 1 | 2.52 | 2 | 4 |
| 1 | 3.6 | 6 | 1 |
| 1 | 3.26 | 5 | 3 |
| 0 | 3.81 | 5 | 0 |
| 1 | 3.51 | 6 | 2 |
| 1 | 2.59 | 0 | 3 |
| 1 | 2.8 | 0 | 2 |
| 1 | 3.23 | 6 | 2 |
| 0 | 3.37 | 3 | 1 |
| 1 | 2.91 | 4 | 2 |
| 1 | 3.18 | 4 | 1 |
| 1 | 3.85 | 6 | 2 |
| 1 | 3.17 | 3 | 3 |
| 1 | 2.77 | 4 | 3 |
| 1 | 3.9 | 1 | 4 |
| 1 | 3.39 | 2 | 3 |
| 1 | 2.58 | 4 | 4 |
| 0 | 3.81 | 1 | 2 |
| 1 | 3.74 | 4 | 1 |
| 1 | 3.17 | 5 | 0 |
| 1 | 2.77 | 6 | 1 |
| 1 | 3.46 | 5 | 0 |
| 1 | 3.9 | 6 | 3 |
| 0 | 3.74 | 1 | 2 |
| 1 | 3.18 | 4 | 4 |
| 1 | 3.2 | 4 | 2 |
| 1 | 3.22 | 5 | 1 |
| 1 | 2.69 | 3 | 0 |
| 1 | 3.08 | 5 | 2 |
| 1 | 2.53 | 3 | 2 |
| 0 | 3.62 | 4 | 0 |
| 1 | 3.64 | 5 | 2 |
| 1 | 2.93 | 6 | 0 |
| 1 | 3.32 | 1 | 3 |
| 1 | 3.57 | 2 | 0 |
| 0 | 2.95 | 2 | 3 |
| 1 | 2.51 | 5 | 3 |
| 1 | 2.89 | 4 | 3 |
| 1 | 2.93 | 5 | 1 |
| 1 | 2.82 | 5 | 3 |
| 1 | 3.2 | 2 | 4 |
| 1 | 3.96 | 3 | 1 |
| 0 | 3.68 | 1 | 1 |
| 1 | 3.07 | 5 | 4 |
| 0 | 3.44 | 4 | 3 |
| 1 | 2.7 | 1 | 4 |
| 1 | 3.79 | 2 | 3 |
| 0 | 3.15 | 0 | 1 |
| 0 | 2.92 | 0 | 1 |
| 1 | 3.36 | 1 | 2 |
| 0 | 3.88 | 0 | 1 |
| 1 | 3.18 | 2 | 3 |
| 1 | 3.6 | 5 | 0 |
| 1 | 3.25 | 4 | 1 |
| 0 | 3.62 | 4 | 1 |
| 1 | 3.53 | 2 | 1 |
| 1 | 3.15 | 3 | 1 |
| 1 | 3.41 | 2 | 2 |
| 1 | 3.92 | 4 | 1 |
| 1 | 2.89 | 3 | 3 |
| 1 | 3.97 | 3 | 3 |
| 0 | 3.1 | 1 | 3 |
| 1 | 3.02 | 4 | 3 |
| 1 | 2.62 | 0 | 4 |
| 1 | 2.68 | 2 | 2 |
| 1 | 3.97 | 3 | 2 |
| 1 | 3.23 | 5 | 2 |
| 1 | 3.11 | 2 | 3 |
| 1 | 3.44 | 3 | 1 |
| 0 | 3.95 | 1 | 0 |
| 1 | 3.81 | 6 | 1 |
| 1 | 3.59 | 4 | 3 |
| 0 | 2.83 | 4 | 0 |
| 1 | 2.97 | 6 | 2 |
| 0 | 3.46 | 0 | 1 |
| 0 | 3.97 | 1 | 1 |
| 0 | 3.89 | 4 | 1 |
| 1 | 2.7 | 5 | 1 |
| 1 | 3.46 | 5 | 3 |
| 1 | 2.87 | 2 | 3 |
| 0 | 3.21 | 2 | 1 |
| 1 | 3.73 | 4 | 1 |
| 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 |
| 1 | 3.13 | 4 | 0 |
| 1 | 3.49 | 3 | 3 |
| 1 | 2.71 | 1 | 2 |
| 0 | 3.79 | 0 | 2 |
| 0 | 3.31 | 1 | 3 |
| 0 | 3.71 | 2 | 1 |
| 1 | 3.96 | 4 | 3 |
| 1 | 2.74 | 3 | 1 |
| 0 | 3.57 | 5 | 2 |
| 1 | 3.54 | 3 | 3 |
| 1 | 3.86 | 1 | 2 |
| 0 | 2.62 | 2 | 0 |
| 1 | 3.83 | 3 | 3 |
| 1 | 3.47 | 3 | 1 |
| 0 | 3.99  |
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