You are a project manager who has successfully completed the project from Topics $2$ and $3.$ A program manager from another division is aware of your familiarity and success with the Technology Refresh Project. He has asked you to perform a schedule risk analysis on a different Technology Refresh Project $($i$.$e$.,$ the Technology Refresh $[$Version B$]$ Project$),$ which is based on your project from Topics $2$ and $3.$ In fact, the project tasks are the same, only the durations and the critical paths are different. $($Note: Your project files from Topics $2$ and $3$ are not relevant to this assignment.$)$

Perform a schedule risk analysis for the Technology Refresh Project $($Version B$)$ by completing the following:

Open the attached "Project Risk Assessment Problems Template." Take note of the project information, including the expected durations and the tasks that are on the critical path.

Calculate the following:

$1.$ The expected project finish time.

$2.$ The variances for the applicable tasks.

$3.$ The total critical path variance.

$4.$ The total critical path standard deviation.

The customer has seen the Technology Refresh $($Version B$)$ Project schedule and the expected project finish time. However, the customer is concerned about the schedule risk of the project. Therefore, he wishes to know the following $($i$.$e$.,$ determine the following$)$:

$5.$ The probability of finishing the project in $287$ days.

$6.$ The probability of finishing the project in $273$ days.

Hint: Before answering the questions, review the "PERT Variance and Probability of Project Completion" video, located in the Topic $4$ Resources.

$7.$ If you wish to solve probabilities of finishing using the Z$-$value approach, refer to "Table E $-$ The Standard Normal Distribution," located in the Topic $4$ Resources.