Question: You are managing a project. The tasks and time estimates for the optimistic, most likely, and pessimistic times are presented in the table below: Activity
You are managing a project. The tasks and time estimates for the optimistic, most likely, and pessimistic times are presented in the table below:
| Activity | Immediate Predecessors | Optimistic | Most Likely | Pessimistic |
| A | -- | 3 | 5 | 7 |
| B | A | 4 | 6 | 8 |
| C | A | 6 | 10 | 14 |
| D | A | 2 | 5 | 7 |
| E | B | 2 | 4 | 5 |
| F | C | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| G | D | 5 | 7 | 9 |
| H | F | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| I | E,F | 2 | 5 | 7 |
| J | H,G | 3 | 5 | 11 |
| K | I,J | 2 | 3 | 4 |
And here is a rough diagram of what the network looks like: (If there is a discrepancy between the "Immediate Predecessor" data in the table and this diagram, use the network diagram.)
Please read the following about your calculations:
- The time you will use in determining the critical path is the expected time (see pg 239.)
- Round to 1 decimal place for your calculations of the expected time, variance, and standard deviation. This is an exception to what you usually do. When you get to computing the various times in the network, you will use only one decimal place.
- Round to 2 decimal places when you compute your z-scores. This is what you will need for the table in Appendix B on page 566.
- Round to 4 decimal places when computing any probabilities. Again this matches the table in Appendix B.
- Remember you can highlight, cut, and paste the data directly into Excel for ease of computation and to reduce transcription errors.
1. What is the expected time for Activity F? (Remember, you are using rounded numbers in your calculations. You will use this rounded number in all subsequent calculations. Format to 1 decimal place)
2. What is the expected time for Activity H? (Format to 1 decimal place)
3. What is the variance for Activity B? (Format with 1 decimal place)
4. What is the variance of Activity D? Format with 1 decimal.
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