You are working for Disney and you are trying to decide whether expanding to create a Portuguese channel in Brazil is worth the investment. 

1. Your macro economists present three broad scenarios for Brazil over the next decade. In the first (high growth), Brazil will register 8% real growth over the period. In the second (moderate growth), the real growth rate is 5% a year for the next 10 years. In the third (decline), the real growth rate is -2% a year for the next 10 years. You attach probabilities of 30% to the first, 50% to the second and 20% to the last scenario.
2. Your competition is also unclear. There are two scenarios. In the first (high competition), you will have three or more strong competitors in your market. In the second (low competition), you will have two or less competitors in your market. The probability of high competition is 60% in the high growth scenario, 40% in the moderate growth scenario and 20% in the low growth scenario.
3. Your advertising revenues under the scenarios are listed below:

	High Competition	Low Competition
High Growth	$ 800 million	$ 1,200 million
Moderate Growth	$ 600 million	$ 900 million
Low Growth	$ 300 million	$ 450 million

Estimate the expected advertising revenue on this investment.

Answer rating: 100% (QA)

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