Question: You do have some information: - Q1 (January through March) = 60% of average quarterly demand - Q2 (April through June) = 80% of average

You do have some information:

- Q1 (January through March) = 60% of average quarterly demand

- Q2 (April through June) = 80% of average quarterly demand

- Q3 (July through September) = 140% of average quarterly demand

- Q4 (October through December) = 120% of average quarterly demand.

You just ran the forecast at the end of September (end of 2014Q3) and you have the following estimates:

For level:_2014Q3 = 1044 units

For trend: (^)b_2014Q3 = 41.1 units per quarter

  1. What is your forecast for demand for 2014Q4? In other words, what is (^)x_2014Q3,2014Q4?
  2. Suppose the actual demand for item SMG25 in 2014Q4 is 1050 units. What is the lowest possible value for your estimate for level (^)x_2014Q3,2014Q4 ?
  3. The model was run at the end of 2014Q4. It provided you with the most recent estimates of each pattern. The estimate for level,_2014Q4 was 1067.8. What is the value of alpha?
  4. The model was run at the end of 2014Q4. The estimate for trend, (^)b_2014Q4 was found to be 39.6. What is value of beta?
  5. The model was run at the end of 2014Q4. The estimate for seasonality, (^)F_2014Q4 was found to be 1.189, before any normalization was done. What is the value of gamma?

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