YOU MUST ALSO CREATE A DECISION TREE

CASE STUDY Tom Thompson's Liver Transplant Tom Thompson, a robust 50-year-old executive living in the a 10% chance of living to age 58. She places his probability of sur- northern suburbs of St. Paul, has been diagnosed by a University vival beyond age 58 without a liver transplant to be extremely low. of Minnesota internist as having a decaying liver. Although he is The transplant operation, however, is a serious surgical pro- otherwise healthy, Thompson's liver problem could prove fatal if cedure. Five percent of patients die during the operation or its left untreated. recovery stage, with an additional 45% dying during the first year. Firm research data are not yet available to predict the likeli- Twenty percent survive for 5 years, 13% survive for 10 years, and hood of survival for a man of Thompson's age and condition with- 8%, 5%, and 4% survive, respectively, for 15, 20, and 25 years. out surgery. However, based on her own experience and recent medical journal articles, the internist tells him that if he elects to avoid surgical treatment of the liver problem, chances of survival Discussion Questions will be approximately as follows: only a 60% chance of living 1 year, 1. Do you think that Thompson should select the transplant operation? a 20% chance of surviving for 2 years, a 10% chance for 5 years, and 2. What other factors might be considered