You must do the necessary calculations in the answer cells. Simply providing a number in the answer cell will not receive any credit.

Part 1: Fill in the pink cells with forecasts. Round off to two decimal points.

Part 1	Demand	3 Period Moving average	5 period moving average	Exponential Smoothing Alpha= .1	Exponential Smoothing Alpha= .4
Day 1	2690.0
Day 2	2700.0			pink	pink
Day 3	2750.0			pink	pink
Day 4	2690.0	pink		pink	pink
Day 5	2780.0	pink		pink	pink
Day 6	2530.0	pink	pink	pink	pink
Day 7	2660.0	pink	pink	pink	pink
Day 8	2520.0	pink	pink	pink	pink
Day 9	2540.0	pink	pink	pink	pink
Day 10	2600.0	pink	pink	pink	pink
Day 11	2700.0	pink	pink	pink	pink
Day 12		pink	pink	pink	pink

Part 2: Fill in the yellow cells with measure of forecast error. Round off to two decimal places.

Period Demand Forecast

1 10316.0 10300.0

2 12443.0 10565.0

3 11717.0 10562.0

4 11035.0 10755.0

5 12173.0 11377.8

6 11015.0 11842.0

7 11039.0 11485.0

8 11934.0 11315.5

9 11972.0 11540.3

10 10518.0 11490.0

	Forecast
CFE	yellow
MAD	yellow
MSE	yellow
MAPE	yellow

Part 3: Answer the questions below. (forecast errors below are based on different data than that shown above.)

	Forecast A	Forecast B	Forecast C
CFE	22	-22	1.5
MAD	11.5	14.5	12.6
MSE	145	169	156
MAPE	0.11	-0.21	0.16

Question 1: Which measure of forecast error is incorrect. Identify the mistake by indicating both the measure of forecast error and the specific forecast (A, B, or C)

Question 2: Which forecast (A, B, or C) has the largest squared errors?

Question 3: Which forecast (A, B, or C) is the least 'biased'?

Grading Rubric

	points possible	points earned
Part 1
3 pd MA	12
5 pd MA	12
ES a=.1	12
ES a=.4	12
Part 2
CFE	7
MAD	7
MSE	7
MAPE	7
Part 3
Q1	8
Q2	8
Q3	8
Total	100	0