Young screenwriter Carl has just finished his first script. It has action, drama, and humor, and he thinks it will be a blockbuster. He takes the script to every motion picture studio in town and tries to sell it but to no avail. Finally, ACME studio offers to buy the script for either $30,000 today or 1.25 percent of the movies profits. There are two decisions the studio has to make. The first is to decide if the script is good or bad; the second is to decide if the movie is good or bad. First, there is a 90 percent chance that the script is bad. If it is bad, the studio does nothing more and throws the script out. If the script is good, it will shoot the movie. After the movie is shot, the studio will review it, and there is a 60 percent chance that the movie is bad. If the movie is bad, the movie will not be promoted and will not turn a profit. If the movie is good, the studio will promote it heavily; the average profit for this type of movie is $55 million.

Which one should Carl pick?

a) $30,000 today

b) 1.25% of the movies profits