Question: Your company is planning on increasing profits by either developing a new product or consolidating the existing product line. You need to do a decision

Your company is planning on increasing profits by either developing a new product or consolidating the existing product line. You need to do a decision tree analysis to decide the best option for the company. If you build a new product using a thorough development method, the likelihood of good sales is 40% and poor sales is 20%. If the new product is built through rapid development, the likelihood of good and moderate sales drops to only 10% and 20% respectively. The thorough development method costs the company $75,000 while rapid product development will only cost $40,000. In either case, if your sales are good, you expect $500,000 revenue and if you receive only moderate sales, you expect revenues of $25,000. Poor sales would bring in revenues of only $1,000. On the other hand, if you consolidate your product line you can choose to strengthen them at a cost of $15,000 or just reap the products with no additional costs. If you strengthen your products you expect to have an equal 30% chance of either good or poor sales. Good sales will produce $200,000 in revenue, moderate sales will bring in $10,000, and poor sales will show you only $3,000 in revenues. If you consolidate and reap your products, you expect a 60% chance of good sales that could bring in $10,000 in revenues. Poor sales would earn you only $1,000 in revenues. What is the expected profit/loss of each choice? Which option should you choose?

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