Your line manager has presented you the passenger data from $2020-22$ shown in Table $1.$ Currently the airport is forecasting the passenger numbers using $2-$Month Moving Average method. Your line manager is concerned that this may not be the most appropriate and accurate method of forecasting for the company. She is proposing that the airport moves to $2-$Month Weighted Moving Average method of forecasting with the weight of $0\mathrm{.}7$ for the most recent period and $0\mathrm{.}3$ for the older period. She is also interested in finding out which method of forecasting you would select for the company

Include the following in your report:

$1.$ Analyse the data given to you. How does the data behave? What patterns are present in

the demand? How do you know? How is this relevant to selecting a forecasting model?

Support your analysis with appropriate tables and figure

$2.$ Generate the forecast for $202022$ using the current model. Analyse the results. Is

appropriate forecasting model being applied? Why$/$why not? Discuss. Support your

analysis with appropriate formulas, tables and figures.

$3.$ Generate the forecast for $202022$ using the model propose by your line manager. Analyse

the results. Is this appropriate forecasting model for the company? Why$/$why not? Discuss.

Support your analysis with appropriate formulas, tables and figures.

$4.$ What forecasting model would you use? Justify the model you have selected. Why do you

think this is the best forecasting method for the company to use? Generate the forecast for

$202022$ using the model you have proposed. Analyse the results. Support your analysis

with appropriate formulas, tables and figures. $[$N$.$B$.$ You must select one of the forecasting

methods covered in the module$]$

$5.$ Determine the forecast error for the current model, the model proposed by your line

manager and the model you selected. Explain and justify the method you have used to

calculate the forecast error. Analyse the results and compare the three forecasting

methods. What are your key observations? How could you use this information when

selecting the method of forecasting? Support your analysis with appropriate formulas and

tables$/$figures$.$

$6.$ Provide two key recommendations for the company, i$.$e$.$ what action should they take and

why. You must deliver your recommendations from the analysis you have conducted in this

report. Justify your recommendations.

$7.$ Discuss the role of forecasting and the implications of forecasting accuracy to operations of

the airport. Why is forecasting important and how might passenger forecast be used by the

airport? Consider some of the operational issues covered in this module.