Your manager is trying to determine what forecasting method to use. Based on the following historical data, calculate the following forecast and specify what procedure you would utilize.

MONTH	ACTUAL DEMAND
1	62
2	65
3	67
4	68
5	71
6	73
7	76
8	78
9	78
10	80
11	84
12	85

a. Calculate the simple three-month moving average forecast for periods 4 to 12.

b. Calculate the weighted three-month moving average for the periods 4 to 12 using weights of 0.50 (for the period t1); 0.30 (for the period t2) and 0.20 (for the period t3).

c. Calculate the single exponential smoothing forecast for periods 2 to 12 using an initial forecast ( F1 ) of 61 and an of 0.30.

d. Calculate the exponential smoothing with trend component forecast for periods 2 to 12 using an initial trend forecast ( T1 ) of 1.8, an initial exponential smoothing forecast ( F1) of 60, an of 0.30, and a of 0.30.

e-1. Calculate the mean absolute deviation (MAD) for the forecasts made by each technique in periods 4 to 12.

Note: Round your answers to 3 decimal places.

e-2. Which forecasting method is best?

Exponential smoothing with trend forecast

Single exponential smoothing forecast

Three-month weighted moving average

Three-month moving average