Your manager is trying to determine what forecasting method to use. Based upon the following historical data, calculate the following forecast and specify what procedure you would utilize.

MONTH ACTUAL DEMAND

$163$

$264$

$368$

$467$

$572$

$671$

$772$

$877$

$977$

$1079$

$1185$

$1287$

a$.$ Calculate the simple three$-$month moving average forecast for periods $4$ to $12.$

Note: Round your answers to $3$ decimal places.

b$.$ Calculate the weighted three$-$month moving average for periods $4$ to $12$ using weights of $0\mathrm{.}50($for the period t$1)$; $0\mathrm{.}20($for the period t$2),$ and $0\mathrm{.}30($for the period t$3).$

Note: Do not round intermediate calculations. Round your answers to $1$ decimal place.

c$.$ Calculate the single exponential smoothing forecast for periods $2$ to $12$ using an initial forecast $($ F$1$

$)$ of $64$ and an $\backslash$alpha of $0\mathrm{.}20.$

Note: Do not round intermediate calculations. Round your answers to $3$ decimal places.

d$.$ Calculate the exponential smoothing with trend component forecast for periods $2$ to $12$ using an initial trend forecast $($ T$1$

$)$ of $1\mathrm{.}80,$ an initial exponential smoothing forecast $($ F$1$

$)$ of $63,$ an $\backslash$alpha of $0\mathrm{.}20,$ and a $\backslash$delta of $0\mathrm{.}30.$

Note: Do not round intermediate calculations. Round your answers to $3$ decimal places.

e$-1.$ Calculate the mean absolute deviation $($MAD$)$ for the forecasts made by each technique in periods $4$ to $12.$

Note: Do not round intermediate calculations. Round your answers to $3$ decimal places.

e$-2.$ Which forecasting method is best?

multiple choice

Three$-$month weighted moving average

Three$-$month moving average

Exponential smoothing with trend forecast

Single exponential smoothing forecast