Your manager is trying to determine what forecasting method to use. Based upon the following historical data, calculate the following forecast and specify what procedure you would utilize.

MONTH	ACTUAL DEMAND
1	63
2	68
3	70
4	66
5	72
6	74
7	75
8	76
9	76
10	81
11	82
12	84

a. Calculate the simple three-month moving average forecast for periods 4-12.

Note: Round your answers to 3 decimal places.

Month	Three Month Moving Average
4	67.000
5	68.000
6	69.333
7	70.667
8	73.670
9	75.000
10	75.667
11	77.667
12	79.667

b. Calculate the weighted three-month moving average for periods 4-12 using weights of 0.60 (for the period t1); 0.30 (for the period t2), and 0.10 (for the period t3).

Month	Three Month weighted Moving Average
4	68.7
5	67.4
6	70.0
7	72.6
8	74.4
9	75.5
10	75.9
11	79.0
12	81.1

c. Calculate the single exponential smoothing forecast for periods 2-12 using an initial forecast (F₁) of 64 and an of 0.30.

Month	single exponential smoothing forecast
2	64.300
3	65.500
4	66.150
5	66.105
6	67.874
7	69.711
8	71.298
9	72.709
10	73.696
11	75.887
12	77.721

d. Calculate the exponential smoothing with trend component forecast for periods 2-12 using an initial trend forecast (T₁) of 1.50, an initial exponential smoothing forecast (F₁) of 63, an of 0.30, and a of 0.40.

Note: Do not round intermediate calculations. Round your answers to 3 decimal places.

Month	Three Month weighted Moving Average
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

11
12

e-1. Calculate the mean absolute deviation (MAD) for the forecasts made by each technique in periods 4-12.

Note: Do not round intermediate calculations. Round your answers to 3 decimal places.

	Mean Absolute Deviation
Three Month Moving Average
Three Month Weighted Moving Average
Single Exponential Smoothing Forecast
Exponential smoothing with trend