1. Your manager is trying to determine what forecasting method to use. Based upon the following historical data, calculate the following forecast, and specify what procedure you would utilize.

Month	Actual Demand	Month	Actual Demand
1	72	7	95
2	78	8	98
3	80	9	101
4	83	10	105
5	87	11	110
6	92	12	112

Please use excel to answer questions. Thank you.

Please use excel to answer questions. Thank you.

a. Calculate the simple four-month moving average forecast for periods 5 to 12. b. Calculate the weighted four-month moving average using weights of 0.25, 0.3, 0.2, and 0.25 for eriods 5 to 12. c. Calculate the simple exponential smoothing forecast for periods 2 to 12 using an initial forecast (F1) of 69 and an a of 0.2. d. Calculate the mean absolute deviation (MAD) for the forecasts made by each technique in periods 5 to 12. Which forecasting method do you prefer? Why? Absolute deviation 4-mo Weighted MA Absolute deviation Exponential Smoothing Absolute deviation Month (t) Demand 4-mo. MA 1 72 2 78 3 80 4 83 5 87 6 92 7 95 8 98 9 101 10 105 11 110 112 12 MAD