Your manager is trying to determine what forecasting method to use. Based on the following historical data, calculate the following forecasts and specify what procedure you would utilize.

MONTH	ACTUAL DEMAND
1	59
2	65
3	65
4	67
5	71
6	70
7	77
8	77
9	77
10	75
11	83
12	81

a. Calculate the simple three-month moving average forecast for periods 412. (Round your answers to 3 decimal places.)

b. Calculate the weighted three-month moving average for periods 412 using weights of 0.50 (for the period t1); 0.30 (for the period t2), and 0.20 (for the period t3). (Do not round intermediate calculations. Round your answers to 1 decimal place.)

c. Calculate the single exponential smoothing forecast for periods 212 using an initial forecast (F₁) of 63 and an of 0.20. (Do not round intermediate calculations. Round your answers to 3 decimal places.)

d. Calculate the exponential smoothing with trend component forecast for periods 212 using an initial trend forecast (T₁) of 1.60, an initial exponential smoothing forecast (F₁) of 62, an of 0.20, and a of 0.30. (Do not round intermediate calculations. Round your answers to 3 decimal places.)

2	61.400selected answer incorrect
3	63.256selected answer incorrect
4	64.845selected answer incorrect
5	66.526selected answer incorrect
6	68.699selected answer incorrect
7	70.470selected answer incorrect
8	73.095selected answer incorrect
9	75.504selected answer incorrect
10	77.521selected answer incorrect
11	78.703selected answer incorrect
12	81.027

e-1. Calculate the mean absolute deviation (MAD) for the forecasts made by each technique in periods 412. (Do not round intermediate calculations. Round your answers to 3 decimal places.)

Mean Absolute Deviation
Three-month moving average	4.148selected answer correct
Three-month weighted moving average	3.578selected answer correct
Single exponential smoothing forecast	5.204selected answer incorrect
Exponential smoothing with trend	1.704 incorrect

e-2. Which forecasting method do you prefer?

multiple choice

• Three-month moving average

• Single exponential smoothing forecast

• Exponential smoothing with trend forecast Correct

• Three-month weighted moving average

need only d and e1 to be fixed