Using the data for Problem 16.12 concerning the bonuses paid to workers on Wall Street from 2000 to 2018 (stored in Bonuses),
a. Fit a third-order autoregressive model to the bonuses paid and test for the significance of the third-order autoregressive parameter. (Use a = 0.05.)
b. If necessary, fit a second-order autoregressive model to the bonuses paid and test for the significance of the second-order autoregressive parameter. (Use a = 0.05 .)
c. If necessary, fit a first-order autoregressive model to the bonuses paid and test for the significance of the first-order autoregressive parameter. (Use a = 0.05.)
d. If appropriate, forecast the bonuses paid in 2019.

Problem 16.12

There has been much publicity about bonuses paid to workers on Wall Street. Just how large are these bonuses? The file Bonuses contains the bonuses paid (in $000) from 2000 to 2018.

a. Plot the data.

b. Compute a linear trend forecasting equation and plot the results.

c. Compute a quadratic trend forecasting equation and plot the results.

d. Compute an exponential trend forecasting equation and plot the results.

e. Using the forecasting equations in (b) through (d), what are your annual forecasts of the bonuses for 2019 and 2020?

f. How can you explain the differences in the three forecasts in (e)? What forecast do you think you should use? Why?