4.6 Tom Lee has been accused by the police of fathering Mary Jones’ child.

Samples are taken of Tom Lee’s DNA and that of the child, and compared.

Suppose that the probability of a DNA match given that Mr. Lee is not the true father is I percent, and the probability of a match given that Mr. Lee actually fathered the child is 99.6 percent. You reason that Mr. Lee would not have been accused if he were a randomly selected individual. so that there is probably a pretty good chance that he is the father of the child. You take this prior probability to be 75 percent. Suppose iaboratoxy results show that there is a DNA match. What is your posterior probability that Tom Lee actually fathered the child?