1 Consider using a simple moving average model. Experiment with models using i ve weeks’ and three weeks’ past data.

The past data in each region are given below (week 21 is the week before week 1 in the table, 22 is two weeks before week 1, etc.). Evaluate the forecasts that would have been made over the 13 weeks using the overall (at the end of the 13 weeks) mean absolute deviation, mean absolute percent error, and tracking signal as criteria.

WEEK -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 Atlanta 45 38 30 58 37 Boston 62 18 48 40 35 Chicago 62 22 72 44 48 Dallas 42 35 40 64 43 LA 43 40 54 46 35 Total 254 153 244 252 198