The Bank of New York Company was founded by Alexander Hamilton in 1784 and was a major commercial bank until its merger with the Mellon Financial Corporation in 2007. Their year- end financial reports for the final five years of independent operation give the following values for their liquid assets.

Year Liquid Assets ($ M)

2002 ..........18,546

2003 ..........22,364

2004 ..........22,413

2005 ..........19,881

2006 ..........26,670

a) Use a 3-year moving average to predict what liquid assets would have been in 2007.

b) Predict the value for 2007 using a single exponential smooth with smoothing parameter α = 0.2.