The monthly sales of the Cavanaugh Company, pictured in Figure 5.1 (bottom), are given in Table P-14.
Table P-14

a. Perform a multiplicative decomposition of the Cavanaugh Company sales time series, assuming trend, seasonal, and irregular components.
b. Would you use the trend component, the seasonal component, or both to forecast?
c. Provide forecasts for the rest of 2006.

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Month 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 January 154 200 223 346 518 613 628 February 96 118 104 261 404 392 308 March April May June 73 90 107 224 300 273 324 49 79 85 141 210 322 248 36 78 75 148 196 189 272 59 9 99 145 186 257 95 167 135 223 247 324 July August 169 169 211 272 343 404 September 210 289 335 445 464 677 October 278 347 460 560 680 858 November 298 375 488 612 711 895 December 245 203 326 467 610 664