When we used Bayes’ theorem to update the probabilities that eKnow would be a Success, Potential, or Failure by counting the number of Definitely-Purchase responses at the National Book Conference, we showed the impact of counting 18 Definitely-Purchase responses in the first hour. Now, suppose that in the second hour you counted17 Definitely-Purchase responses.
a. Use Bayes’ theorem a second time to update the posterior probabilities that incorporate the 18 Definitely-Purchase responses.
b. Suppose you did not have time to update the equal probability values of 1/3, 1/3, 1/3 for Success, Potential, and Failure after the first hour. Starting with these equal probability values show that having 35 Definitely-Purchase responses in two hours produces the same updated probabilities as computing the updated probabilities after each hour.