Question: A financial analyst estimates that the probability that the economy will experience a recession in the next 12 months is 25%. She also believes that

A financial analyst estimates that the probability that the economy will experience a recession in the next 12 months is 25%. She also believes that if the economy encounters a recession, the probability that her mutual fund will increase in value is 20%. If there is no recession, the probability that the mutual fund will increase in value is 75%. Find the probability that the mutual fund’s value will increase.

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