4. A financial analyst estimates that the probability that the Fiji's economy will experience a recession within the next 12 months is 30%. She also believes that if the economy encounters a recession the probability that her stock returns will increase in value is 30%. If there is no recession the probability that the stock returns will increase in value is 80%

. i) Find the probability that the stock returns will increase. [Hint: Illustrate above probabilities using one or more tools of illustrating probabilities discussed in this course and use these to solve. Clearly identify your events and label each probability as equation.]

ii) Is stock return and recession independent? Justify.

iii) Find the probability that there will be neither recession and nor increase in stock return.