Question: A group of builders are considering a method for estimating the cost of constructing custom houses. The builders used the method to estimate the cost
The builders used the method to estimate the cost of 10 spec houses that were built without a commitment from a customer. The builders obtained the actual costs (exclusive of land costs) of completing each house, to compare with the estimated costs.
We went back to our accountant, who did a regression analysis of the data and gave us these results. The accountant says that the estimates are quite accurate, with an 80% correlation and a very low p-value. Were still pretty skeptical of whether this new method gives us decent estimates. We only clear a profit of about 10 percent, so a few bad estimates would hurt us. Can you explain to us what this output says about the estimating method?
Write a brief, not-too-technical explanation for them. Focus on the builders question about the accuracy of the estimates. A plot is shown here.
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HTB Regress Actalni variable Estimate. The regression equation is Actual-347391.25 Etimate Predictor Coer -34739 1 2474 Stdev 60147 0.3293 t-ratio -0.58 3.79 0.579 0.005 stinate s19313 Analysis of variance R-sq 64 , 2 R-sq(aaj) 59.78 # DF KS Regression 1 535081113 5350811136 Eror rotal 14.35 0.005 2983948032 332993504 9 9334759912 Unusual Observations obs . Estimate Actual Fit Staev . Fit Resaua1 .Resid 2 186200152134 97531 6296 -45397 -2.49 R denotes an obs. With a large at. resid Correlation g timate, 'Actual, . correlation of Estimate and Actual # 0.801 24,000 23.000- 22,000- 21.000 20,000 9,000 8,000 17,000 16,000- 500o- 15,00016000 17,000 18000 19,000 2000021.000 22,000 Estimated $
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