CoastCo Insurance, Inc., is interested in developing a forecast of larceny thefts in the United States. It has found the following data:

Plot this series in a time-series plot and make a naive forecast for years 2 through 19. Calculate the RMSE and MAD for years 2 through 18. On the basis of these measures and what you see in the plot, what do you think of your forecast? Explain.

Year Larceny Thefts Year Larceny Thefts* 4,151 4,348 5,263 5,978 6,271 5,906 5,983 6,578 7,137 7,194 7,143 6,713 6,592 6,926 7,257 7,500 7,706 1872 10 12 13 14 15 16 17 18