CoastCo Insurance, Inc., is interested in developing a forecast of larceny thefts in the United States. It has found the following data:

Year	Larceny Thefts*	Year	Larceny Thefts*
1	4,151	10	7,194
2	4,348	11	7,143
3	5,263	12	6,713
4	5,978	13	6,592
5	6,271	14	6,926
6	5,906	15	7,257
7	5,983	16	7,500
8	6,578	17	7,706
9	7,137	18	7,872

Plot this series in a time-series plot and make a naive forecast for years 2 through 19. 

Calculate the MAPE for years 2 through 18.

On the basis of these measures and what you see in the plot, what do you think of your forecast? Explain.