Consider the following time series data:

a. Construct a time series plot. What type of pattern exists in the data?
b. Develop a three-week moving average for this time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for week 8.
c. Use α = 0.2 to compute the exponential smoothing values for the time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for week 8.
d. Compare the three-week moving average forecast with the exponential smoothing forecast using α = 0.2. Which appears to provide the better forecast based on MSE?
e. Use Excel Solver or LINGO to find the value of a that minimizes MSE.

Month 2 3 45 6 7 Value 24 13 20 12 19 23 15