Consider the Reliable Construction Co. project scheduling example presented in Sec. 28.2. Recall that simulation was used to estimate the probability of meeting the deadline and that Fig. 28.8 revealed that the deadline was met on 57.7 percent of the trials from one simulation run. As discussed while interpreting this result, the percentage of trials on which the project is completed by the deadline will vary from simulation run to simulation run.
This problem will demonstrate this fact and investigate the impact of the number of trials per simulation on this randomness. The spreadsheet model is available on this website. Make sure that the Monte Carlo sampling method is chosen in Simulation Options.
(a) Set the trials per simulation to 100 in Simulation Options and run the simulation of the project five times. Note the mean completion time and the percentage of trials on which the project is completed within the deadline of 47 weeks for each simulation run.
(b) Repeat part a except set the trials per simulation to 1,000 in Simulation Options.
(c) Compare the results from part a and part b and comment on any differences..
Activity Predecessors
A. Secure funding.......... –
B. Design building.......... A
C. Site preparation.......... A
D. Foundation........... B, C
E. Framing.............. D
F. Electrical............ D
G. Plumbing............ E
H. Walls and roof............ F, G
I. Finish construction.......... H
J. Landscaping........... H