Forecasters often provide only point forecasts, which are their best guesses as to an upcoming event. For example, an economic forecaster might predict that U.S. gross national product (GNP) will increase at a3% annual rate over the next three months. Occasionally a forecaster also will provide an estimate of the degree of confidence in the point forecast to indicate how sure (or unsure) the forecaster is. In what sense can your answers to Problem 8.12 be interpreted as forecasts? What advantages do subjective probability distributions have over typical point forecasts? What disadvantages? How could a decision maker use probabilistic forecasts such as those in Problem 8.12?