Should you drop your decision-analysis course? Suppose you faced the following problem: If you drop the course, the anticipated salary in your best job offer will depend on your current GPA:
Anticipated Salary | Drop = ($4,000 – Current GPA) + $16,000
If you take the course, the anticipated salary in your best job offer will depend on both your current GPA and your overall score (on a scale of 0 to 100) in the course:
Anticipated Salary | Do Not Drop = 0.6 ($4,000 – Current GPA)
+ 0.4 ($170 – Course Score)
+ $16,000
The problem is that you do not know how well you will do in the course. You can, however, assess a distribution for your score. Assuming that 90 – 100 is an A, 80 – 89 is a B, 70 – 79 a C, 60 – 69 a D, and0 – 59 an F, assess a continuous probability distribution for your numerical score in the course. Use that distribution to decide whether or not to drop the course. Figure 8.21 shows your decision tree.