In Exercise 11.5.3, suppose the owner decides to look at the accuracy of past forecasts by the

Question:

In Exercise 11.5.3, suppose the owner decides to look at the accuracy of past forecasts by the government. Suppose his study indicates that a forecast of economic expansion came true only 2/3 of the time, whereas an economic downturn came true 4/5 of the time. Now based on this new evidence, what is the optimal option for the owner?