In Problem 19.16, an author is deciding which of two competing publishing companies to select to publish her new novel. Prior to making a final decision, the author decides to have an experienced reviewer examine her novel. This reviewer has an outstanding reputation for predicting the success of a novel. In the past, for novels that sold 1,000 copies, only 1% received favorable reviews. In the past, for novels that sold 2,000 copies, only 1% received favorable reviews. Of novels that sold 5,000 copies, 25% received favorable reviews. Of novels that sold 10,000 copies, 60% received favorable reviews. Of novels that sold 50,000 copies, 99% received favorable reviews. After examining the author's novel, the reviewer gives it an unfavorable review.

a. Revise the probabilities of the number of books sold in light of the reviewer's unfavorable review.

b. Use these revised probabilities to repeat Problem 19.16.

c. Compare the results in (b) to those in Problem 19.16.