Is the caplets value equal to the expected discounted value of its payoff at maturity using the

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Is the caplet’s value equal to the expected discounted value of its payoff at maturity using the actual probabilities? If not, provide and explain the correct answer.
Maturity
Maturity is the date on which the life of a transaction or financial instrument ends, after which it must either be renewed, or it will cease to exist. The term is commonly used for deposits, foreign exchange spot, and forward transactions, interest...
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