(Feller14) A large number, N, of people are subjected to a blood test. This can be administered...

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(Feller14) A large number, N, of people are subjected to a blood test. This can be administered in two ways: (1) Each person can be tested separately, in this case N test are required, (2) the blood samples of k persons can be pooled and analyzed together. If this test is negative, this one test suffices for the k people. If the test is positive, each of the k persons must be tested separately, and in all, k + 1 tests are required for the k people. Assume that the probability p that a test is positive is the same for all people and that these events are independent. 

(a) Find the probability that the test for a pooled sample of k people will be positive. 

(b) What is the expected value of the number X of tests necessary under plan (2)? (Assume that N is divisible by k.) 

(c) For small p, show that the value of k which will minimize the expected number of tests under the second plan is approximately 1/pp.

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Stats Data and Models

ISBN: 978-0321986498

4th edition

Authors: Richard D. De Veaux, Paul D. Velleman, David E. Bock

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