People were asked to give a personal probability assessment of the possible occurrence of each of the following two events (Kahneman, 2011, p. 159):
• “A massive flood somewhere in North America next year, in which more than 1000 people drown.”
• “An earthquake in California sometime next year, causing a flood in which more than 1000 people drown.” Using the material from this chapter, explain which of the two possible events you think people found more likely and whether that event is, in fact, more likely.