Refer to Exercise 14.58.

a. Compute the exponentially smoothed series for the annual number of workers who are fully and permanently insured for Social Security. Use the smoothing constant w = .5.
b. Plot the number of workers and the exponentially smoothed values on the same graph.
c. Use exponential smoothing to forecast the number of fully and permanently insured workers in 2016 and 2017. What is the drawback to these forecasts?

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Fully, permanent Fully, not permanent Event of Year disability 2000 2001 2002 2003 140.9 142.9 144.9 147.0 44.9 45.2 45.3 45.0 139.5 141.7 143.5 144.9 149.0 151.1 153.3 155.4 157.4 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 44.8 44.7 45.1 45.6 46.0 146.2 147.7 150.1 152.3 154.5 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 159.2 161.1 163.1 163.3 165.3 167.3 44.8 44.6 44.3 44.0 43.9 43.8 150.6 151.7 152.6 149.2 149.9 150.6 2015 169.4 43.8 151.2