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A Course In Behavioral Economics 3rd Edition Erik Angner - Solutions
Multiple lawsujts allege that area gambling establishments, on multiple occasions, doctored equipment so as to give Birmingham mayor Larry Langford tens of thousands of dollars in winnjngs.Langford, already in prison for scores of corruption-related charges, has not denied winning the money; he
After vetoing ii bill from the California State Assembly in 2009, California Governor Arnold Schwc1rzencgger published a letter(Ssperson s,1id: " It was just a weird coincidence."(,1) Assuming that a letter has eight lines, and that each of the 26 letters in the alphabet is equally likely to appear
When you take the SAT test, you may think that the correct answers to the various questions would be completely random. In fact, they are not.The authors of the test want the answers to seem random, and therefore they make sure that not all correct answers are, say, (d). Consider the following
Suppose that, on the third trial, instead of flipping heads, the student flips tails. What would John's and Wes's posterior probability be? To solve this problem, let E mean "The coin comes up tails."
Suppose Wes, before the student s tarts flipping the coin, assigns a probability of 50 percent to the hypothesis that it has two heads.(a) What is his posterior probability after the first trial? (b) After the second?
You are considering asking Lout for a date, but you are a little worried that L may already have started dating somebody else. The probability that L is dating somebody else, you would say, is 1/4. If L is da ting somebody else, he/she is wuikely to accept your offer to go on a date: in fact, you
Suppose that your patient from Exercise 4.38 dies in less than one year, before you learn whether he or she has type A or type B cancer.Given that the pahent died in less than a year, what is the probability that she had type A cancer?
Use the rule of total probability to solve the following problem.You are a physician meeting with a patient who has just been diagnosed with cancer. You know there are two mutually exclusive types of cancer that the patient could have: type A and type 8. The probability that he or she has A is 1 /3
Prove that the three parts of Proposition 4.35 are equivalent. The most convenient way of doing so is to prove (a) that(i) implies (ii), (b) that (ii) implies (iii), and (c) that (iii) implies (i). (i) Pr (A|B) (ii) Pr (BA) (iii) Pr (A&B) Pr(A) Pr (B) Pr(A) * Pr(B)
Suppose that H means "The patient has a headache" and T means"The patient has a brain tumor." (a) How to you interpret the two conditional probabilities Pr (HIT) and Pr (T I H)? (b) Are the two numbers more or less the same?
Use the idea of anchoring and adjustment from Section 3.6 to explain why people believe that they have a good chance of winning these lotteries.
What does probability of winning the Lotto 6/49 tell you nbo11t the wisdom of buying Lotto tickets? Whnt does it tell you nbout people who buy these tickets?
In computing the answer to Exercise 4.2S(d), you may have been tempted to add the probability of rolling a six on the one die (1/6) to the probability of rolling a six on the other die (1/6) to get the answer 2/6 = 1/3. That, however, would be a mistake. Why?
Suppose you draw two cards from a well-shuffled deck of cards with replnce111ent, meaning that you put the first card back into the deck (and shuffle the deck once more) before drawing the second card.(a) What is the probability that you draw the ace of spaces twice?(b) What is the probability that
When rolling two fair dice, what is the probability that the number of dots add up to 11? If you intend to use the OR rule, make sure the relevant outcomes are mutually exclusive. If you intend to use the AND rule, make sure the relevant outcomes are independent.
According to a well-known saying: "Lucky in cards, unlucky in love." Ts this to say that luck in cards and luck in love are independent or not independent?
What pairs of outcomes are independent? More th,m one answer may be correct.(a) You s leep late; you are late for class.(b) You are a remarkable student; you get a good job after graduation.(c) You write proper thank-you notes; you get invited back.(d) The first time you flip a silver dollar you
Are you more likely to get two sixes when rolling one fair die twice or when simultaneously rolling two fair dice?
What is the probability of drawing an ace when drawing one card from a regular (well-shuffled) deck of cards? If you intend to apply the OR rule, do not forget to check that the relevant outcomes are mutually exclusive. The importance of checking whether two outcomes are mutually exclusi,·e is
Which pairs of outcomes are mutually exclusive?More than one answer may be correct.(a) It is your birthday; you have a test.(b) lt rains; night falls.(c) You get Bs in all of your classes; you get a 4.0 GPA.(d) Your new computer is a Mac; your new computer is a PC.(e) You are a remarkable student;
Your other friend Bull has another deck of cards.This deck has four cards: one card is white on both sides; one card is black on both sides; one card is red on both sides; and one card is white on one side and red on the other. Imagine that you shuffle the deck well, including turning individual
Your friend Bill is showing you his new deck of cards. The deck consists of only three cards. The first card is white on both sides.The second card is red on both sides. The third card is white on one side and red on the other. Now Bill shuffles the deck well, occasionally turning individual cards
Your other neighbor, Mr Peters, has three children. Having just moved to the neighborhood, you do not know whether the children are boys or girls. Let us assume that every time Mr Peters had a child, he was equally likely to have a boy and a girl (and that there are no other possibilities).(a) What
Instead of telling you that at least one of the children is a girl, Mrs Jones tells you that her oldest child is a girl. Now, what is the probability that the other child is also a girl?
Suppose that you are drawing one card each from two thoroughly shuffled but otherwise normal decks of cards. What is the probability that you draw the same card from the two decks?
Linda is 31 years old, single, outspoken and very bright. She majored in philosophy. As a student, she was deeply concerned with issues of discrimination and social justice and also participated in anti-nuclear demonstrations.(a) What is the probability that Linda is a bank teller?(b) What is the
You are visiting your new neighbor, Mrs Jones.Mrs Jones tells you that she has two children, who are playing in their room. Assume that each time somebody has a child, the probability of having a girl is the same as the probability of having a boy (and that whether the mother had a boy or a girl
Drawing on your ow,, experience, make up stories like those i11 Exercise 3.34 to illustrate the various ideas that yo11 have read about in this chapter
Match each of the vignettes below with one of the following phenomena: anchoring and adjusbnent, compromise effect, failure to consider opportunity costs, loss aversion, and s1111k-cost fallacy. If in doubt, pick the best fit.(a) Adam has just arrived at the movie theater when he realizes that he
The Pear computer company is introducing a new line of tablet computers. The Macro has huge storage capacity but is not very affordable. The Micro has limited storage capacity but is very affordable.(a) Market research suggests that a typical consumer tends to be indifferent between the Micro and
The following quote is from a 2009 news story titled"Tension builds around courthouses' reopening." The controversy concerns whether to reopen a satellite courthouse in a building that the county owns or one in a building that the county leases. What fallacy does Mr Humphryes commit?The county owns
The following question was famously asked of 200 professional economists at the 2005 meeting of the American Economic Association (AEA). By looking up the answer in the answer key, you can compare your performance with theirs:You won a free ticket to see an Eric Clapton concert (which has no resale
According to legend, the inventor of chess was asked by the emperor what he (the inventor) wanted in return for his invention.The inventor responded: "One grain of rice for the first square on the chess-board, two grains for the second square, four grains for the third square, and so on." TI1e
Give people 5 seconds to come up with an answer to either one of the following multiplication problems:(a) Compute: 1*2*3 *4 *5* 6 * 7 * 8(b) Compute: 8 * 7 *6 *5 *4 * 3 *2* 1 Given that (a) and (b) are mathematically equivalent, you might expect your research participants to come up with more or
Spin a wheel of fortune to come up with a number between O and 100, and invite your participants to answer the following two questions: (a) Is the percentage of African nations in the United Nations (UN) greater than or less than the number? (b) What is the actual percentage of African nations in
At one university library, there is a single book that is so popular that it is chained to the checkout counter. It is the book that lists the salaries of all university employees. Presumably, no one would use the book to look up one's own salary: that information is more easily accessible on one's
Insofar as you use other people's salaries as a reference point, what does value theory seem to say about maximizing value in your life?
Assume that Alysha and Billy have the following va lue function over exam scores: v(x) = x/2 for gains and v(x) = 2x for losses. Both of them use the expected exam score as their reference point.(a) Alysha expects to score 75 out of 100 on her upcoming midterm exam. She does better than expected.
Draw a graph that illustrates how a person who gets a five percent raise can be elated if she did not expect a raise at all, but feel cheated if she expected a ten percent raise.
Broadly speaking, in Europe, health care is provided by the government and paid for by taxes. That is, individuals are taxed by the go,·emment, which then uses the tax money to provide health care services for the citizens.In the US, again broadly speaking, health care is largely purchased
Suppose that you are loss averse, ,111d tha t your value function is i'(X) =x for gains and P(x) = 3x for losses.(a) Represent the value function graphically, in the m,mner of Figure 3.12.(b) Represent your indifference cun•es graphically, in the manner of Figure 3.1-t(b), assuming that your
This exercise refers to Figure 3.13. When you gain a car, incorporate it into your endowment, and then lose it, what is the total change in value that you experience? Assume that you are loss averse and have the value function v(x) = x /2 for gains and v(x) = 2x for losses.
Suppose Alex and Bob are loss averse, so that their value function is t>(x) = x/2 for gains and v(x) = 2.r for losses. Because of an upcoming election, politician R promises a tax cut which would give each citizen an additional two dollars in his or her pocket every day. Politician D opposes the
Alicia and Benice own stock in the same company.When they bought the stock, it was worth $10. It later rose to $17, but then dropped to $12. Alicia and Benice are loss averse and have the same value function:
ln the presence of loss aversion, your willingnessto-accept (WTA) does not in general equal your willingness-to-pay (WTP). When eliciting your WTA, you are asked to imagine that you have some good and to state· what dollar amount you would be willing to accept in order to give the good up, meaning
To improve your chances on the dating scene, you have decided to recruit a wingman or wingwoman.(a) How, in general terms, should you choose your wingman or wingwoman?(b) Imagine that your attractiveness and intelligence are both rated 9 on a 10-point sca le. You have two competitors: one whose
Suppose that you are a real-estate agent showing two properties to potential customers. The one is in good shape but far from the clients' office; the other is only in decent shape but close to the office.(a) lf you want the customers to choose the former, what third property should you show?(b) If
For this question, refer to Figure 3.8.(a) If you are in charge of marketing the target product, in what area would you want to put the decoy?(b) Assuming the decoy works as anticipated, does the figure show the indifference curves the way they look before or after the introduction of the decoy?
Students at an expensive liberal arts college may take courses at a nearby public university at no additional charge. One of their professors tells them that it would make no sense to do so, since they would be losing the money they paid for tuition at the more pricey college. Given that a student
Draw decision trees for people who (a) hold on to failed investments and (b) stay in bad relationships, in such a way that it becomes clear that the people in question are committing the sunk-cost fallacy.
Imagine that you paid $80 for a ticket for a college basketball game to be played in about an hour's drive away. The ticket cannot be sold. On the day of the game, there is a freak snowstorm that makes driving hazardous. Would you go to the game?Now, imagine that the ticket instead was given to you
Imagine that after visiting your parents in Kansas a few times, you earn a voucher that can be exchanged for a free airplane ticket anywhere in the country. You decide to go to Las Vegas. You would not actually have bought a ticket to Vegas, but because it was free you figured you might as well.
Using the language of opportunity cost, explain why highly paid people are less likely than poor people to mow their own lawns, clean their own houses, maintain their own cars, and so on.
This exercise refers to Figure 3.3. Suppose that a fifth act (call it a5) becomes available. Assume that n5 has a utility of 9.ia) What would the tree look like now?(b) What would happen to the opportunity costs of the different alternatives?
Explain (in words) why each of the two characters below is irrational according to the theory you have learned in this chapter.(a) In the drama Sophie's Choice, the title character finds herself in a Nazi concentration camp and must choose which one of her children is to be put to death. She is not
As part of your answer to the following questions, make sure to specify what the universe is.(a) Give an example of a relation that is complete but not transitive.(b) Give an example of a relation that is transitive but not complete
Prove Proposition 2.31(ii). It is easy to confirm that the proposition is true of the utility function from Figure 2.7.
Suppose that your budget is $12. Use a graph to answer the following questions:(a) What is the budget set when apples cost $3 and bananas cost $4?(b) What is the budget set when apples cost $6 and bananas cost $2?(c) What is the budget set when apples always cost $2, the first banana costs $4, and
If you can also choose to eat an appetizer only, or an entree only, or nothing at all, what would the new menu be?
If a restaurant offers two appetizers (soup and salad) and two en trees (chicken nnd beeO and you must choose one appetizer and one en tree, what is your set of alternatives?
Represent the following sets of indifference curves graphically.(a) Suppose that an apple for you is always as good as two bananas.(b) Suppose that one apple is always as good, as far as you are concerned, as a banana.(c) Suppose that you do not care for tea without milk or for milk without tea.
By contrast, it is possible for the weak preference relation to cycle. This is to say that there may well be an x, y, and z such that x ~ y & y ~ z & z ~ x. If this is so, what do we know about the agent's preferences over x, y, and z? Prove it.
Using the definitions and propositions discussed so far, show that it is impossible for a rational strict preference relation to cycle. To do so, suppose (for the sake of the argument) that x >- y & y >- z & z >- x and show that this leads to a contradiction. Heavenly Bliss Y Coke
Imagine that there are 1000 cups of tea lined up in front of you. The cups are identical except for one difference: the cup to the far left (c1)contains one grain of sugar, the second from the left (c2) contains two grains of sugar, the third from the left (c3) contains three grains of sugar, and
Suppose that you are offered two vacation packages, one to California and one to Florida, and that you are perfectly indifferent between the two. Let us call the Florida package f and the California packagec. So f "'c. Now, somebody improves the Florida package by adding an apple to it. You like
Prove the following two principles:(a) [f -.x >,:: y and --. y >,:: : , then --.x ~ z tb) If -.x >-y and -.y >- : , then --.x >- Z
Prove that if x"' y and y "': then -. x >- z.
Establish the following important and intuitive principles. (For the record, some of them are logically equivalent.)(a) If x >- If then x >,:: If(b) If x>-y then --.y -.,,,,x(c) If--.x>-ytheny >,:, \'(d) If x>,:, .If then --.y :-- t (e) If-.x>,::y then y>-x 1 t) lf x >- y then -. x ""'y I )!;) lf
Prove the following principle: x >- y & y >,:,:-. t > z (for all x, y, :).Notice that this proof has two pMts. First, prove that x >,:, :;second, prove that .... :>,:, t.
Prove Proposition 2.1-l(iii). Prove it by contradiction, by first assuming that there is an x such that x >- x.
Using the definitions and propositions discussed so far, complete the first part of the proof of Proposition 2. 14(i).
Prove the following principle: x )p y & y"' z -+ x )p z.[f you have difficulty completing the proof, refer to the text box on page 19 for hints.When a first option is at least as good as a second, but the second is not at least as good as the first, we say that the first option is better than the
Use your understanding of transitivity and completeness to answer the following questions:(a} If the universe is !apple, banana, starvation}, what does the transitivity of the preference relation entail?(b) If the universe is !apple, banana}, what does the completeness of the preference relation
Assuming the universe is the set of all natural numbers, meaning that U = {l, 2,3,4, .. . }, are the following relations transitive? Are they complete?(a) "is at least as great as" (:".:.)(b) "is equal to"(=)(c) "is strictly greater than"(> )(d) "is divisible by" (I)
Assuming the universe is the set of all people - past, present, and iuture - are the following relations transitive? Are they complete?(a) "is the mother of"(b) "is an ancestor of"(c) "is the sister of"(d) "detests"(e) "weighs more than"(t) "has the same first name as"(g) "is taller than"
Consider the following exchange from the TV show 30 Rock.Tracy, Grizz, and Dot Corn are playing computer games. Tracy always beats Grizz,rnd Dot Com. When Kenneth beats Tracy but gets beaten by Grizz, Tracy grows suspicious.Tracy:Grizz:Tracy:"How were you beating Kenneth, Grizz?""I don't know.""If
Supposed denotes "enjoying a cool drink on a hot day"and r denotes "getting roasted over an open fire."(a) How would you state your p reference over these two options?(b) How would you express a masochist's preference over these two options?
Suppose we are talking about all countries that are members of the United Nations. How would that be written?
Assume that f denotes France and n denotes Norway, and that B means "is bigger than."(a) How would you write that France is bigger than Norway?(b) How would you write that Norway is bigger than France?(c) How would you write that Norway is bigger than Norway?
In a recent study on financial decision-making, people's answers to three quick mathematics questions were strong predictors of their wealth: households where both spouses answered all three questions correctly were more than eight times as wealthy as households where neither spouse answered any
Suppose that you are playing poker, and that you are playing to win. Would you benefit from having an adequate descriptive theory, a correct normative theory, or both?
Which of the following claims are descriptive and which are normative? (Answers to this and other exercises can be found in the Appendix.)(a) On average, people save less than 10 percent of their income for retirement.(b) People do not save as much for retirement as they should.(c) Very often,
Drawing on your own experience, make up stories like those in Exercise 3.66 to illustrate the various ideas that you have read about in this chapter.
Match each of the vignettes below with one of the following phenomena: anchoring and adjustment, compromise ef ect, failure to consider opportunity costs, loss aversion, and sunk-cost fallacy. If in doubt, pick the best fit. (a) Adam has just arrived at the movie theater when he realizes that he
Seneca What phenomenon might Seneca have had in mind when he wrote the following? “Let us turn now to inheritances, the greatest cause of human distress; for should you compare all the other ills that make us suffer…with the evils that our money causes us, this portion will easily
W. E. B. Du Bois The great African–American scholar and activist W. E. B. Du Bois said: “The most important thing to remember is this: To be ready at any moment to give up what you are for what you might become.” Why is this so hard, and why do people have to be reminded?
Larry and Janet Larry and Janet are loss averse: their value function is v(x) = x/3 for gains and v(x) = 3x for losses. The two hold stock in the same company. They bought it yesterday, when the stock was worth $7. Today, unfortunately, it dropped to $4. (a) Larry uses the original price ($7) as
Tim and Bill Tim and Bill are addicted to Apple products. They are looking at the new iPhone at a store that offers a noquestions-asked return policy. They are not sure the new features are worth it. Tim decides to take one home, thinking that he can always return it tomorrow. Bill decides against
Pear Corporation The Pear computer company is introducing a new line of tablet computers. The Macro has huge storage capacity but is not very affordable. The Micro has limited storage capacity but is very affordable. (a) Market research suggests that a typical consumer tends to be indifferent
Mr Humphryes The following quotation is from a 2009 news story titled “Tension builds around courthouses’ reopening.” The controversy concerns whether to reopen a satellite courthouse in a building that the county owns or one in a building that the county leases. What fallacy does Mr
Hot yoga “You’re back; you must have liked it!,” says the hot-yoga studio receptionist the second time you use your one-week pass. What fallacy might the receptionist be unfamiliar with?
Does money buy happiness? Research by economists Betsey Stevenson and Justin Wolfers finds that the marginal happiness of money is positive (though sharply diminishing) at all levels of income. This means that all things equal, more money would make the average person happier (though less and less
Reasons to accept vs. reasons to reject In a 1993 study, participants were asked to adjudicate an only-child sole-custody case following a messy divorce. Parent A was described as average in terms of income, health, work–life balance, rapport with child, and social stability. Parent B was
Toasters Suppose that you wanted to sell toasters for $160, which will strike customers like a lot. How does research on anchoring and adjustment suggest that you do it? You can also use anchoring and adjustment to increase the quantity that customers buy. Promotions of the form “3 for $2,”
Invention of chess According to legend, the inventor of chess was asked by the emperor what he (the inventor) wanted in return for his invention. The inventor responded: “One grain of rice for the first square on the chess-board, two grains for the second square, four grains for the third square,
Multiplication Give people 5 seconds to come up with an answer to either one of the following multiplication problems: (a) Compute: 1 * 2 * 3 * 4 * 5 * 6 * 7 * 8(b) Compute: 8 * 7 * 6 * 5 * 4 * 3 * 2 * 1 Given that (a) and (b) are mathematically equivalent, you might expect your research
Africa and the UN Spin a wheel of fortune to come up with a number between 0 and 100, and invite your participants to answer the following two questions: (a) Is the percentage of African nations in the United Nations (UN) greater than or less than the number? (b) What is the actual percentage of
Clutter While many people across the world continue to struggle to meet fundamental needs, more and more people in the developed world have the opposite problem: too much stuff. Although American homes have grown dramatically over the last 50 years or so, the amount of stuff people own has
Milton and Rose Friedman Nobel laureate Milton Friedman and Rose Friedman famously wrote: “Nothing is so permanent as a temporary government program.” (a) Use the concept of loss aversion to explain why supposedly temporary government programs have a tendency to last longer than originally
Affordable Care Act Writing in the Washington Examiner in July of 2013, Byron York explained why Democrats were so eager to implement the Affordable Care Act, a.k.a. Obamacare, which aims to provide health insurance for otherwise uninsured Americans: Obamacare is designed to increase the number of
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