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Business Analytics Methods Models And Decisions 1st Edition James R. Evans - Solutions

3. For the four clusters identified in Example 12.1, find the average and standard deviations of each numerical variable for the schools in each cluster and compare them with the averages and standard deviations for the entire data set. Does the clustering show distinct differences among the
2. For the Excel file Colleges and Universities, normalize each column of the numerical data (that is; compute a z-score for each of the values) and then compute the Euclidean distances between the following schools: Amherst, Cal Tech, and Duke.
1. Compute the Euclidean distance between the following sets of points:a. (2,5) and (8,4)b. (2, -1, 3) and (8, 15, -5)
• Use XLMiner to develop association rules.
• Describe association rule mining and its use in market basket analysis.
• Explain the purpose of classification methods, how to measure classification performance, and the use of training and validation data.
• Apply cluster analysis techniques using XLMiner.
22. J&G Bank receives a large number of credit-card applications each month, an average of 30,000 with a standard deviation of 4,000, normally distributed. Approximately 60% of them are approved, but this typically varies between 50%and 70%. Each customer charges a total of $2,000, normally
21. Refer back to the college admission director scenario (Problem 25 in Chapter 8).Develop a spreadsheet model and identify uncertain distributions that you believe would be appropriate in order to conduct a Monte Carlo simulation.Based on your model and simulation, make a recommendation on how
20. The retirement planning model described in Chapter 8 (Figure 8.6) assumes that the data in rows 5–8 of the spreadsheet are the same for each year of the model.Comment on the realism of this assumption. Modify the spreadsheet to allow the annual salary increases and return on investment to
19. Review the retirement-planning situation described in Chapter 8 (Figure 8.6).Modify the spreadsheet to include the assumptions that the annual salary increase is triangular with a minimum of 1%, most likely value of 3%, and maximum value of 5%, and that the annual investment return is
18. For the Hyde Park Surgery Center scenario described in Problem 22 in Chapter 8, suppose that the following assumptions are made. The number of patients served the first year is uniform between 1,300 and 1,700; the growth rate for subsequent years is triangular with parameters (5%, 8%, 9%), and
17. Develop and analyze a simulation model for Koehler Vision Associates (KVA)in Problem 10 of Chapter 8 with the following assumptions. The weekly demand averages 175, but anywhere between 10% and 20% of prospective patients fail to show up or cancel their exam at the last minute. Determine the
16. Develop a simulation model for a 3-year financial analysis of total profit based on the following data and information. Sales volume in the first year is estimated to be 100,000 units and is projected to grow at a rate that is normally distributed with a mean of 7% per year and a standard
15. A plant manager is considering investing in a new $30,000 machine. Use of the new machine is expected to generate a cash flow of about $8,000 per year for each of the next 5 years. However, the cash flow is uncertain, and the manager estimates that the actual cash flow will be normally
14. Develop a Monte Carlo simulation model for the garage-band in Problem 4 in Chapter 8 with the following assumptions. The expected crowd is normally distributed with mean of 3,000 and standard deviation 400 (minimum of 0). The average expenditure on concessions is also normally distributed with
13. The manager of the extended-stay hotel in Problem 16 of Chapter 8 believes that the number of rooms rented during any given month has a triangular distribution with minimum 32, most likely 38, maximum 50. Operating costs follow a normal distribution with mean $25,000 and a standard deviation of
12. Using the profit model developed in Chapter 8, implement a financial simulation model for a new product proposal and determine a distribution of profits using the discrete distributions below for the unit cost, demand, and fixed costs. Price is fixed at $1,000. Unit costs are unknown and follow
11. Simulate the newsvendor model for the pharmacy situation described in Problem 9 of Chapter 8. Use the IntUniform distribution in Risk Solver Platform to model the demand and find the distribution of profit for order quantities between 5, 8, 10, 12, and 15.
10. Use the Newsvendor Model spreadsheet to set up and run a Monte Carlo simulation assuming that demand is Poisson with a mean of 45 but a minimum value of 40 (use the lower cutoff parameter in the distribution dialog). Find the distribution of profit for order quantities of 40, 45, and 50.
9. For the Moore Pharmaceuticals model, suppose that analysts have made the following assumptions:• R&D costs: Triangular($500, $700, $800) in millions of dollars• Clinical trials costs: Triangular($135, $150, $160) in millions of dollars• Market size: Normal(2000000, 250000)• Market share
8. For the profit model developed in Example 8.2 in Chapter 8 and in Figure 8.2, suppose that the demand is triangular with a minimum of 35,000, maximum of 60,000 and most likely value of 50,000; fixed costs are normal with a mean of $400,000 and a standard deviation of $25,000; and unit costs are
7. Suppose that several variables in the model for the economic value of a customer in Example 8.1 in Chapter 8 are uncertain. Specifically, assume that the revenue per purchase is normal with a mean of $50 and standard deviation of $5 and the defection rate is uniform between 20% and 40%. Find the
6. For the Outsourcing Decision Model, suppose that the demand volume is lognormally distributed with a mean of 1,500 and standard deviation of 500. What is the distribution of the cost differences between manufacturing in-house and purchasing?What decision would you recommend? Define both the cost
5. Use Risk Solver Platform to simulate the Outsourcing Decision Model under the assumptions that the production volume will be triangular with a minimum of 800, maximum of 1,700, and most likely value of 1,400; and that the unit supplier cost is normally distributed with a mean of $175 and a
4. Financial analysts often use the following model to characterize changes in stock prices:Pt = P0e(m-0.5s2)t+sZ2t where P0 = current stock price Pt = price at time t m = mean (logarithmic) change of the stock price per unit time s = (logarithmic) standard deviation of price change Z = standard
3. For the new-product model in Problem 6 of Chapter 8, suppose that the first-year sales volume is normally distributed with a mean of 100,000 units and a standard deviation of 10,000. Use the NORM.INV function and a one-way data table to conduct a Monte Carlo simulation to find the distribution
2. For the garage-band model in Problem 4 of Chapter 8, suppose that the expected crowd is normally distributed with a mean of 3,000 and standard deviation of 200.Use the NORM.INV function and a one-way data table to conduct a Monte Carlo simulation to find the distribution of the expected profit.
1. For the market share model in Problem 1 of Chapter 8, suppose that the estimate of the percentage of new purchasers who will ultimately try the brand is uncertain and assumed to be normally distributed with a mean of 35% and a standard deviation of 4%. Use the NORM.INV function and a one-way
• Correlate uncertain variables in a simulation model using Risk Solver Platform.
• Compute confidence intervals for the mean value of an output in a simulation model.
• Use Risk Solver Platform to develop, implement, and analyze Monte Carlo simulation models.
• Use data tables to conduct simple Monte Carlo simulations.
• Explain the concept and importance of analyzing risk in business decisions.
21. Data in the Excel File Microprocessor Data shows the demand for one type of chip used in industrial equipment from a small manufacturer.a. Construct a chart of the data. What appears to happen when a new chip is introduced?b. Develop a causal regression model to forecast demand that includes
19. Choose an appropriate forecasting technique for the data in the Excel file Prime Rate and find the best forecasting model. Explain how you would use the model to forecast and how far into the future it would be appropriate to forecast.20. Choose an appropriate forecasting technique for the data
18. Choose an appropriate forecasting technique for the data in the Excel file Mortgage Rates and find the best forecasting model. Explain how you would use the model to forecast and how far into the future it would be appropriate to forecast.
17. Choose an appropriate forecasting technique for the data in the Excel file Federal Funds Rates and find the best forecasting model. Explain how you would use the model to forecast and how far into the future it would be appropriate to forecast.
16. Choose an appropriate forecasting technique for the data in the Excel file DJIA December Close and find the best forecasting model. Explain how you would use the model to forecast and how far into the future it would be appropriate to forecast.
15. Choose an appropriate forecasting technique for the data in the Excel file Coal Consumption and find the best forecasting model. Explain how you would use the model to forecast and how far into the future it would be appropriate to forecast.
14. The Excel file Olympic Track and Field Data provides the gold medal–winning distances for the high jump, discus, and long jump for the modern Olympic Games. Develop forecasting models for each of the events. What do your models predict for the next Olympics?
13. Use the Holt-Winters no-trend model to find the best model to find forecasts for the next 12 months in the Excel file Housing Starts.
12. Use the Holt-Winters no-trend model to find the best model to forecast the next year of electricity usage in the Excel file Gas & Electric.
11. Develop a multiple regression model with categorical variables that incorporate seasonality for forecasting housing starts beginning in June 2006 using the data in the Excel file Housing Starts.
10. Develop a multiple regression model with categorical variables that incorporate seasonality for forecasting sales using the last three years of data in the Excel file New Car Sales.
9. Develop a multiple regression model with categorical variables that incorporate seasonality for forecasting the temperature in Washington, D.C., using the data for years 1999 and 2000 in the Excel file Washington DC Weather. Use the model to generate forecasts for the next 9 months and compare
8. Consider the data in the Excel file Nuclear Power. Use simple linear regression to forecast the data. What would be the forecasts for the next 3 years?
7. Consider the data in the Excel file Consumer Price Index.a. Use simple linear regression to forecast the data. What would be the forecasts for the next 2 months?b. Use the double exponential smoothing procedure in XLMiner to find forecasts for the next 2 months.
6. Consider the prices for the DJ Industrials in the Excel file Closing Stock Prices.The data appear to have a linear trend over the time period provided.a. Use simple linear regression to forecast the data. What would be the forecasts for the next 3 days?b. Use the double exponential smoothing
5. For the data in the Excel file Gasoline Prices do the following:a. Develop spreadsheet models for forecasting prices using simple moving average and simple exponential smoothing.b. Compare your results to the outputs from Excel’s Data Analysis tools.c. Using MAD, MSE, and MAPE as guidance,
4. The Excel file Closing Stock Prices provides data for four stocks and the Dow Jones Industrials Index over a 1-month period.a. Develop spreadsheet models for forecasting each of the stock prices using simple 2-period moving average and simple exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant of
3. The Excel file Energy Production & Consumption provides data on production, imports, exports, and consumption. Develop line charts for each “total” variable and identify key characteristics of the time series (for example, trends or cycles).Are any of these time series stationary?
2. Search The Conference Board’s Web site to find economic forecasts and reports about their business cycle indicators. Write a short report about your findings.
1. Identify some business applications in which judgmental forecasting techniques such as historical analogy and the Delphi method would be useful.
• Apply XLMiner to different types of forecasting models.
• Identify the appropriate choice of forecasting model based on the characteristics of a time series.
23. The Helicopter Division of Aerospatiale is studying assembly costs at its Marseilles plant.6 Past data indicates the following labor hours per helicopter:Helicopter Number Labor Hours 1 2,000 2 1,400 3 1,238 4 1,142 5 1,075 6 1,029 7 985 8 957 Using these data, apply simple linear regression,
22. Cost functions are often nonlinear with volume because production facilities are often able to produce larger quantities at lower rates than smaller quantities.5 Using the following data, apply simple linear regression, and examine the residual plot. What do you conclude? Construct a scatter
21. For the House Sales data described in Problem 21, develop a regression model for selling price as a function of lot cost and region.
20. A national homebuilder builds single-family homes and condominium-style townhouses. The Excel file House Sales provides information on the selling price, lot cost, type of home, and region of the country 1M = Midwest, S = South2 for closings during one month.a. Develop a multiple regression
19. The State of Ohio Department of Education has a mandated ninth-grade proficiency test that covers writing, reading, mathematics, citizenship (social studies), and science. The Excel file Ohio Education Performance provides data on success rates (defined as the percent of students passing) in
18. Use the p-value criterion to find a good model for predicting the number of points scored per game by football teams using the data in the Excel file National Football League.
17. The Excel file Golfing Statistics provides data for a portion of the 2010 professional season for the top 25 golfers.a. Find the best multiple regression model for predicting earnings/event as a function of the remaining variables.b. Find the best multiple regression model for predicting
16. The Excel file Major League Baseball provides data on the 2010 season.a. Construct and examine the correlation matrix. Is multicollinearity a potential problem?b. Suggest an appropriate set of independent variables that predict the number of wins by examining the correlation matrix.c. Find the
15. Using the data in the Excel file Freshman College Data, identify the best regression model for predicting the first year retention rate. For the model you select, conduct further analysis to check for significance of the independent variables and for multicollinearity.
14. The Excel file Credit Approval Decisions provides information on credit history for a sample of banking customers. Use regression analysis to identify the best model for predicting the credit score as a function of the other numerical variables.For the model you select, conduct further analysis
13. The Excel file Salary Data provides information on current salary, beginning salary, previous experience (in months) when hired, and total years of education for a sample of 100 employees in a firm.a. Develop a multiple regression model for predicting current salary as a function of the other
12. The Excel file Cereal Data provides a variety of nutritional information about 67 cereals and their shelf location in a supermarket. Use regression analysis to find the best model that explains the relationship between calories and the other variables. Investigate the model assumptions and
11. Using the data in the Excel file Home Market Value, develop a multiple linear regression model for estimating the market value as a function of both the age and size of the house. Find a 95% confidence interval for the mean market value for houses that are 30 years old and have 1,800 square
10. The Excel file Concert Sales provides data on sales dollars and the number of radio, TV, and newspaper ads promoting the concerts for a group of cities. Develop simple linear regression models for predicting sales as a function of the number of each type of ad. Compare these results to a
9. A deep-foundation engineering contractor has bid on a foundation system for a new building housing the world headquarters for a Fortune 500 company. A part of the project consists of installing 311 auger cast piles. The contractor was given bid information for cost-estimating purposes, which
8. The Excel file National Football League provides various data on professional football for one season.a. Construct a scatter diagram for Points/Game and Yards/Game in the Excel file. Does there appear to be a linear relationship?b. Develop a regression model for predicting Points/Game as a
7. Using the data in the Excel file Student Grades, apply the Excel Regression tool using the midterm grade as the independent variable and the final exam grade as the dependent variable.a. Interpret all key regression results, hypothesis tests, and confidence intervals in the output.b. Analyze the
6. Using the data in the Excel file Demographics, apply the Excel Regression tool using unemployment rate as the dependent variable and cost of living index as the independent variable.a. Interpret all key regression results, hypothesis tests, and confidence intervals in the output.b. Analyze the
5. The managing director of a consulting group has the following monthly data on total overhead costs and professional labor hours to bill to clients:4 Total Billable$340,000 3,000$400,000 4,000$435,000 5,000$477,000 6,000$529,000 7,000$587,000 8,000 Develop a regression model to identify the fixed
4. Set up an Excel worksheet to apply formulas (9.5) and (9.6) to compute the values of b0 and b1 for the data in the Excel file Home Market Value and verify that you obtain the same values as in Examples 9.2 and 9.3.
3. Using the results of fitting the Home Market Value regression line in Example 9.2, compute the errors associated with each observation using formula (9.3) and construct a histogram.
2. Using the data in the Excel file Student Grades, construct a scatter chart for midterm versus final exam grades and add a linear trendline. What is the regression model? If a student scores 85 on the midterm, what would you predict her grade on the final exam to be?
1. Using the data in the Excel file Demographics, verify that a linear relationship exists between unemployment rates and cost of living indexes by constructing a scatter chart. Then find the best-fitting linear regression line using the Excel Trendline tool.
• List the assumptions of regression analysis and describe methods to verify them.
• Use the Excel Trendline tool to find the best-fitting simple linear regression model.
• Use a scatter chart to identify the type of relationship between two variables.
• Explain the purpose of regression analysis and provide examples in business.
25. The admissions director of an engineering college has $500,000 in scholarships each year from an endowment to offer to high-achieving applicants. The value of each scholarship offered is $25,000 (thus, 20 scholarships are offered). The benefactor who provided the money would like to see all of
24. For the new-product model in Problem 6, construct a tornado chart and explain the sensitivity of each of the model’s parameters on the NPV of profit.
23. For the garage-band model in Problem 4, construct a tornado chart and explain the sensitivity of each of the model’s parameters on total profit.
22. The Hyde Park Surgery Center specializes in high-risk cardiovascular surgery.The center needs to forecast its profitability over the next 3 years to plan for capital growth projects. For the first year, the hospital anticipates serving 1,500 patients, which is expected to grow by 8% per year.
21. Think of any retailer that operates many stores throughout the country, such as Old Navy, Hallmark Cards, or Radio Shack, to name just a few. The retailer is often seeking to open new stores and needs to evaluate the profitability of a proposed location that would be leased for 5 years. An
20. For the garage-band model you developed in Problem 4, define and run some reasonable scenarios using the Scenario Manager to evaluate profitability for variations in the estimates.
19. For the nonprofit ballet company fundraising model you developed in Problem 8, use a data table to show how the amount varies based on the number of solicitations.
18. For the stockbroker model you developed in Problem 7, use data tables to show how the commission is a function of the number of calls made.
17. For the Koehler Vision Associates model you developed in Problem 10, use data tables to study how revenue is affected by changes in the number of appointments accepted and patient demand.
16. The weekly price at an extended-stay hotel (renting by the week for business travelers) is $900. Operating costs average $25,000 per month, regardless of the number of rooms rented. Construct a spreadsheet model to determine the profit if 40 rooms are rented. The manager has observed that the
15. Use the Markdown Pricing Decisions spreadsheet model and a two-way data table to find the total revenue if days at full retail vary from 20 to 40 in increments of 5 and the intermediate markdown varies from 15% to 50% in increments of 5%.
14. Problem 14 in Chapter 1 posed the following situation: The demand for airline travel is quite sensitive to price. Typically, there is an inverse relationship between demand and price; when price decreases, demand increases, and vice versa.One major airline has found that when the price (p) for
13. Problem 13 in Chapter 1 posed the following situation: A manufacturer of mp3 players is preparing to set the price on a new model. Demand is thought to depend on the price and is represented by the model D = 2,000 - 3P The accounting department estimates that the total costs can be represented
12. A consumer products company has collected some data relating monthly demand to the price of one of its products:Price Demand$12 2,080$14 2,006$16 1,950$18 1,870 What type of model would best represent these data? Use the Trendline tool to find the best among the options provided.
11. Each worksheet in the Excel file LineFit Data contains a set of data that describes a functional relationship between the dependent variable y and the independent variable x. Construct a line chart of each data set, and use the Add Trendline tool to determine the best-fitting functions to model
10. Koehler Vision Associates (KVA) specializes in laser-assisted corrective eye surgery. Prospective patients make appointments for prescreening exams to determine their candidacy for the surgery: if they qualify, the $300 charge is applied as a deposit for the actual procedure. The weekly demand
9. A local pharmacy orders 15 copies of a monthly magazine. Depending on the cover story, demand for the magazine varies. The pharmacy purchases the magazines for $2.25 and sells them for $5.00. Any magazines left over at the end of the month are donated to hospitals and other health care

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