Cost Estimation Methods And Tools 1st Edition Gregory K. Mislick, Daniel A. Nussbaum - Solutions

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Name the type of simulation that is a widely accepted simulation method used to produce cost distributions from the means and variances of all inputs.
There are generally two types of uncertainty in your cost inputs. Describe them both.
There are four types of risk that you should consider in a life cycle cost estimate.Name the four.
Risk and uncertainty will allow you to provide not just a point estimate but also to apply a _______________________ range of dispersion from that point estimate.
What are three elements of risk in a CBA?
As in most problems in analysis, the first step in the US Army cost benefit analysis guide is to: ______________________________________________________
After completing the historical system’s WBS with its historical costs, the key is to calculate the______________________ of those costs against the recurring hardware costs. These will be used to calculate the costs in the new system’s WBS.
When calculating your new T1, it is necessary to quantify differences between the historical program and the new system with three distinct factors. Name those three factors:
In the analogy technique, we break the new system down into components, usually via a WBS, that can be compared to similar existing components. The basis for comparison between the two systems can be in terms of (name 4 of the 6):
When using the analogy technique, we assume that our new system will behave“cost-wise” like the historical/analogous system. (True/False)
The analogy technique is the method used when only _________ historical system point is available for comparison.
You are tasked with determining the tooling costs on a new system. Technical experts are estimating that these tooling costs should be approximately 33% of its prototype manufacturing costs. You were able to find two similar systems as your historical data. Prototype manufacturing costs for System
The pricing guide used by the primary services when costing out engineering and military construction projects is called the ________________ _________________________________.
Cost Factors can be either historical or forward looking (True/False)
A cost factor is a CER in which cost is directly proportional to just ___________ independent variable.
If the first unit production cost in your program is $35,000, what was the step-down and the step-down factor from your answer in question 13.10?
Your program had seven prototypes that cost a total of $450,000. What was the AUC for your prototypes?
The ratio of the production phase first unit cost to the prototype average unit cost is known as?
Instead of lot costs, what two costs are generally associated with prototypes?
Prototypes generally use unit theory learning curves to determine the cost of each prototype and also their total costs.(True/False)
Using the Fully Burdened Labor Rate per hour found in (5), calculate the total labor cost to your program given the following information:• Expected contractor support is 80 man-months• One man-month equals 160 man-hours
Given the following FY13$ costs in your program, calculate the contractor’s Fully Burdened Labor Rate per hour:• Direct Labor Wage Rate: $45 per hour• Overhead rate is 130% of Direct Labor dollars• “Other Cost” rate is 20% of (Direct Labor dollars + Overhead dollars)
Most firms collect indirect costs in aggregate cost accounts called _____ ______________________?
The Direct Labor Rate is influenced by what four factors?
The labor rate which includes all of the contractor costs and hours necessary to complete the task is called the ______________________________ ____________________________.
“Wrap Rate total costs” equals the sum of what three costs?
Continuing the same problem: Given that T1 = $55, 000 (FY13$), the learning curve is 89%, and 500 items were made prior to the break in production, answer each of the seven steps of the Retrograde method. What would be the cost for the next lot of 500 items?
Given the following weighting factors, now calculate the Lost Learning Factor:Weighting Factor Learning Lost Weighted Loss Personnel 0.30 Supervisors 0.25 Continuity of Production 0.15 Methods 0.15 Tooling 0.15 LLF =
A production that was halted for eight months is ready to recommence operations.Given the following information, calculate the percentage of Learning Lost in each of the five categories:
When production resumes, the seven-step process to determine what unit we need to go back to on the learning curve is called the _______________________ _________________________.
The Anderlohr Method analyzes five categories where losses occur during a production break. Calculations using these five categories results in determining the_________________________________________________.
After a break in production, the first unit produced after the break is significantly ________________________ than the last unit produced before the break.
When there is a break in production, the amount of learning that is lost by working personnel is highly correlated to the length of the break. (True/False)
Using the numbers calculated in question (5) and (6), what would the lot cost be for units 301 to 500, using cumulative average theory principles?
In Cumulative Average Theory, if the average cost of 100 units is $4M and the learning curve is 87%, what would you expect the average cost of 300 units to be?
In Cumulative Average Theory, if the average cost of 100 units is $4M and the learning curve is 87%, what would you expect the average cost of 200 units to be?
In Cumulative Average Theory, if the slope parameter “b” = −0.3154, what is the slope of the learning curve?
In Unit Theory, when calculating lot costs the dependent variable (Y-axis) is ______________________________ and the independent variable (X-Axis) is ______________________________. In Cumulative Average Theory, when calculating lot costs the dependent variable is __________________________________
Cumulative Average Theory is preferred over Unit Theory in some situations because the effect of averaging the production costs “smoothes out” initial unit cost variations. (True/False)
The primary difference between Unit Theory and Cumulative Average Theory is that Cumulative Average Theory concentrates on each lot individually, while Unit Theory calculates the cumulative average cost of all units to date, collectively.(True/False)
What would the cost of the second lot of 100 units be? (Units 101–200)
Using the numbers calculated in question (7), what would the cost be for the first 100 units in that lot?
In Unit Theory, if the cost of unit 100 is $4M and the learning curve is 87%, what would you expect the cost of unit 300 to be?
In Unit Theory, if the cost of unit 100 is $4M and the learning curve is 87%, what would you expect the cost of unit 200 to be?
If the slope parameter “b” = −0.3154, what is the slope of the learning curve?
In learning curve theory, a 95% learning curve is “better” than an 85% learning curve. (True/False)
What are the two predominant theories on learning curves?
Learning curve analysis is developed as a tool to estimate the _________ costs in an assembly or production process.
The premise of learning curve theory is that each time you perform a task, you become better at it and accomplish the task faster than the previous time, due to an inherent improvement in efficiency. (True/False)
Since this equation of the line is in natural log dollars, use the exponential function to convert the equation back into dollar units. What is the resultant equation?
Fit a trend line or perform a regression on the transformed data set. What is the equation of the line that best fits this data?
Make a scatter plot of the transformed data set.
Transform the data to make it linear by using the natural log.
Consider the following data set in a production process. Note that cost is in FY13$:(FY13$)Unit Number Unit Cost 1 5,000 10 4,000 50 3,100 75 2,900 100 2,750 Plot this data set to determine if it is linear or non-linear data.
The term “Intrinsically linear regression” is used when your data set is not linear, but some transformation may be applied in order to make the data appear/become linear.(True/False)
If you find that they are highly correlated, what would you do to check whether multi-collinearity was causing a problem or not in your preferred regression? What is the statistical relationship between BOL Power and Efficiency?
above. Are the independent variables highly correlated to each other? How do you know if they are or not?
Create a correlation matrix for the data in Problem
and 8.6 here. Which regression has the better statistics?
at the end of the chapter to your answers in
Compare the results from the single linear regression of Cost vs BOL Power in Chapter 7, Question
What is the coefficient of variation for this regression? Is that value considered good or bad?
What are the values for R2 and standard error for this regression?
Using the regression hierarchy, does this regression pass the Phase 1 criteria?
You are assigned a project to cost a solar array panel to be delivered to the International Space Station. As we saw in Chapter 7, one of the popular metrics for the solar array panel is Beginning of Life (BOL) power. We will now add an additional independent variable of Efficiency. Historical data
By introducing additional variables into our regression, we cannot change the total variation in the model. However, wecan attempt to further minimize the __________ ______________, since that depends upon the differences between the actual cost and the predicted costs.
The purpose for using more than one independent variable in a regression is to try to improve our regression prediction, to better explain our cost with multiple independent variables rather than with just a single independent variable.(True/False)
Are there any outliers in the BOL Power data? How do you determine that mathematically?
What is the coefficient of variation for this regression? Is that value considered good or bad?
What are the values for R2 and standard error for this regression?
Using the regression hierarchy, does this regression pass the Phase 1 criteria?
You are assigned a project to cost a solar array panel to be delivered to the International Space Station. One of the popular metrics for the solar array panel is Beginning of Life (BOL) power. Historical data has been collected on ten programs similar to the one you are estimating and can be found
While trying to derive a straight line prediction using regression analysis, the goal is to minimize the differences between the actual cost and the predicted cost (True/False)
Regression Analysis is used to describe a _____________relationship between variables.
What is the Coefficient of Variation for this data set? Would you consider this CV good or bad?
(i.e.solve for the range, variance, and standard deviation)?
What are the three measures of dispersion for the same data set in Question
Your local high school football team played ten games during this past season. The following data set summarizes the number of points scored in each of those ten games:What are the three measures of central tendency for this data set (i.e., solve for the mean, median, and mode)?
This uncertainty can be quantified (e.g.) as “±3%” or “±5%” and is called the _____________ ___ ______________.
Since we only take a sample of the entire population, there is going to be ________________ in our answer.
In statistics, we rarely have the time or money to look at the statistics of an entire population. Consequently, we take a subset of that population, which is called a ________________.
Which index do TY$ conversions use in the DoD Inflation Indices?
Which index do the CY$, BY$, and FY$ calculations and conversions use in the DoD Inflation Indices?
DoD inflation indices are developed for each service for a particular activity or type of procurement and are called _____________________?
In Section 1.5, Example 5.3, what would the inflation indices look like if the Base Year selected was 2007 instead of 2004? (Index for 2007 is now 1.000)
In Section 1.5, Example 5.3, what would the inflation indices look like if the Base Year selected was 2002 instead of 2004? (Index for 2002 is now 1.000)
When developing an index, the base year always has an index of what number?
What is inflation?
When normalizing for quantity, we always want to find an _______ _______ to use as a data point for comparisons.
There are three broad categories for normalizing data. What are these three categories?
Name the website that is the authoritative source for Selected Acquisition Reports(SARs).
Name the three service-specific websites that track Operating and Support costs.
What type of costs does the DCARC website primarily track, and name the two websites within DCARC?
The system calculated in the CPR used to help the PM monitor the progress and performance of his or her program is called?
Each of the uniformed services has its own cost agency. Name these three:
What are the four types of data we need to collect?
When collecting data, the data that you need will be both _____________ and _______________.
The CES is used in what phase(s) of a programs life cycle?
The WBS is used in what phase(s) of a programs life cycle?
Which document provides the system description and is considered the basis upon which the system cost will be estimated, including physical and performance characteristics, plus development, production and deployment schedules?

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Cost Estimation Methods And Tools 1st Edition Gregory K. Mislick, Daniel A. Nussbaum - Solutions

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