Develop a single exponential smoothing model using a = 0.20. Use as a starting value the average of the first 6 years’ data. Determine the forecasted value for year 2016.

a. Compute the MAD for this model.

b. Plot the forecast values against the actual data.

c. Use the same starting value but try different smoothing constants (say, 0.05, 0.10, 0.25, and 0.30) in an effort to reduce the MAD.

d. Is it possible to answer part d of Exercise 16-51 using this forecasting technique? Explain your answer.