Question: Computing Forecasts and Forecast Standard Errors Using a Regression Package. This is based on Salkever (1976). From equations (7.23) and (7.24), show that (a)
Computing Forecasts and Forecast Standard Errors Using a Regression Package. This is based on Salkever (1976). From equations (7.23) and (7.24), show that
(a) δ
OLS = (β
OLS, γ
OLS) where β
OLS = (XX)−1Xy, and γ
OLS = yo −XoβOLS. Hint: Set up the OLS normal equations and solve two equations in two unknowns. Alternatively, one can use the FWL Theorem to residual out the additional To dummy variables.
(b) e∗
OLS = (e
OLS, 0) and s∗2 = s2.
(c) s∗2(X∗X∗)−1 is given by the expression in (7.25). Hint: Use partitioned inverse.
(d) Replace yo by 0 and ITo by −ITo in (7.23) and show that γ = yo = XoβOLS whereas all the results in parts (a),
(b) and
(c) remain the same.
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