For a class project, you are supposed to take a poll to forecast the outcome of an election. How many people do you have to ask so that with probability 0.95 your estimate will not differ from the true outcome by more than 5%? We will use casual language to state these problems. The precise formulation of the first one is if p = 1/6, then what is the probability that we will observe 3,123 or more sixes in 18,000 rolls. Here, and in what we follows, we will ignore the fact that we should multiply by 2 to get a more accurate idea of how odd the observation is.