You are a serious student who studies on Friday nights but your roommate goes out and has a good time. 40% of the time he goes out with his girlfriend; 60% of the time he goes to a bar. 30% of the times when he goes out with his girlfriend he spends the night at her apartment. 40% of the times when he goes to a bar he gets in a fight and gets thrown in jail. You wake up on Saturday morning and your roommate is not home. What is the probability that he is in jail?