Question: An article about computer forecasting software explained how to gauge the uncertainty in a prediction: [Calculate] the standard deviation and mean (average) of the data.

An article about computer forecasting software explained how to gauge the uncertainty in a prediction: “[Calculate] the standard deviation and mean (average) of the data.

As a good first guess, your predicted value … is the mean value, plus or minus one standard deviation—in other words, the uncertainty is about one standard deviation”

[12]. What did they overlook?

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