Question: (e) In general, when there is a reasonably long time series such as this one, and there is a clear long-term cycle (shown by plotting

(e) In general, when there is a reasonably long time series such as this one, and there is a clear long-term cycle

(shown by plotting a 12-month moving average, for in-

stance) what should the forecaster do? Use all the data?

Use only the last so-many years? If the object is to forecast the next 12 months ahead?

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