There were 722 patients admitted to the ICU for H1N1 in Australia and New Zealand from June 1 to August 31, 2009 (winter season). The total population of Australia and New Zealand is approximately 25,000,000 = 25 million. Suppose that the underlying incidence rate is the same for the United States as for Australia and New Zealand. If there are 250 million people who live in the United States, then what is the estimated number of H1N1 cases admitted to the ICU in the United States during the winter season (12/21/09ˆ’3/20/10), and what is a 95% CI for the number of US cases? 

The data in Table 14.38 were presented on H1N1 patients admitted to the ICU (no. per million inhabitants) by week and region. 

Table 14.38 H1N1 patients admitted to the ICU in 2009 (no. per million inhabitants) by week and region

 

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Region Week Victoria New South Wales Queensland 0.2 06/29 4.2 1.8 07/06 2.8 4.2 0.8 07/13 4.5 6.5 3.7 07/20 1.7 4.7 6.1 07/27 0.9 4.7 6.8 08/03 1.3 2.0 6.1 08/10 1.7 1.2 5.2 2001 Population 5,314,000 6,984,000 4,294,000