Consider once again the CO₂ and global temperature data of Exercise 41. The mean CO₂ level for these data is 352.566 ppm.
a) Find a 90% confidence interval for the mean global temperature anomaly if the CO₂ level reaches 450 ppm.
b) Find a 90% prediction interval for the mean global temperature anomaly if the CO₂ level reaches 450 ppm.
c) The goal of the Paris Climate agreement is equivalent to a temperature anomaly of about 1.3 °C in our data. If CO₂ levels do reach 450 ppm, would this be a plausible value?

Data From Exercise 41

Data collected from around the globe (including the sea ice data of Exercise 23) show that the earth is getting warmer. The generally accepted explanation relates climate change to an increase in atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide (CO₂) because CO₂ is a greenhouse gas that traps the heat of the sun. A standard source of the mean annual CO₂ concentration in the atmosphere (parts per million) is measurements taken at the top of Mauna Loa in Hawaii (away from any local contaminants) and available at ftp://aftp.cmdl.noaa.gov/ products/trends/co2/co2_annmean_mlo.txt. Global temperature anomaly is the difference in mean global temperature relative to a base period of 1981 to 2010 in °C. It is available at www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/data-info/global. Here are a scatterplot and regression for the years from 1959 to 2016:

Transcribed Image Text:

Temp 0.75 0.50 0.25- 0.00 325 + 350 CO₂ 375 400